18/07/20 7:15 Curragh- Irish Oaks - System
2nd Cayenne Pepper 2/1 - 80
3rd Snow 11/2 - 70
4th Passion 14/1 - 55
As you can see there is a bit of a jump between the top 3 and the 4th, the 4th onwards are all very close.
Ennistymon has only won one race and that was a 1m 2f Maiden back in June, then went on to be 2nd in the Ribbesdale over 1m 4f to Frankly Darling. Then came 2nd again when beaten an impressive 9L by Love in the English Oaks, and reversed the form by coming home in front of Frankly Darling by a length. Both of those were 5l clear of 4th place. Love smashed the track record that day, so you have to think that was a very strong run by Ennistymon. Also, i love my stats, and one of the stats suggest you want a horse who has come via Epsom and came home in the top 6. That has produced a massive 12 winners here at 29.27%, and only Ennistymon and Passion have done it this year. Ennistymon comes here with a massive chance - however, these stats pointed out are based on a normal year. The 2 Oaks are not normally so close, so bear that in mind. But for Ennistymon, she likes the going, the course is fine and so is the distance. She has big claims.
Cayenne Pepper came a gallant 2nd at the Curragh over 1m 2f 20 days ago in the Pretty Polly, and that was not bad form seeing as she was beaten by multiple Group 1 winner Magical. She hasnt been up to 1m 4f yet, but she is by a Derby Winner in Austrailia so you would have to hope she would. My only worry is that her half siblings have not shown any form over 1m 2f, but Cayenne Pepper is class compared to her siblings efforts. We know she likes it at the Curragh so thats a bonus, and the ground is fine. Just a question mark over the distance, but in theory she should be fine. The stats on the route she has taken is only 3 winners at 7.5%. But i think she will run a big race here.
Snow is a full sister to Kew Gardens, so we know 1m 4f is great, and she has won at this distance. She will actually probably want further like her brother. In fact 1m 6f may be perfect for her. She should go very well and i cannot see her being disgraced here. Everything will suit and she will run a big race.
I think Passion will be pacemaker again unfortunately, She probably needs a drop in grade, but i would be surprised to see her win here.
Just want to mention New York Girl (scored 40) she took on the boys in the Irish Derby and came 7th. I dont think she was disgraced there, and back against her own type will help her. 1m 4f is actually perfect for her, so the distance is not an issue, she has won at the track and the ground should suit. I wouldnt dissmiss her at a big prie ew. I dont think she can beat the top 2, but she may pinch 3rd.
My Selection: Ennistymon 2/1
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