10/03/20 2:10 Cheltenham - Arkle - System

1st Notebook 3/1 - 75
2nd Fakir D'oudairies 4/1 - 65
3rd Put The Kettle On 16/1 - 60
3rd Global Citizen 18/1 - 60

 Notebook is unbeaten over fences and has two Grade 1's and one Grade 2 to his name since going over the bigger obstacles. He is a winner on soft so ground will not be a worry. However a couple of negatives that will not show up on stats, he bolted down at the start of his last race, and he just got away with it, Beating Cash Back who he meets again here. if he hasnt of bolted, he probably would have won more easily. Which makes me think that if, he doesn't bolt this time, then Cash Back will not be able to reverse the form. But the worry is that at Cheltenham, they have to go past the stands, and for a horse like Notebook, that could be disasterous. I think he may have ear plugs in, but Rachel will need to keep the lid on him, and on an occasion like this it will be very hard. Im sure connections will do all they can, but thats a massive negative. Also the fact that he went to Cheltenham last year for the Ballymore, and ran a very bad race. Not sure if there is a reason for that, but a bad run at Cheltenham when he has on the whole had a great race record.

Fakir D'oudairies was beaten by Notebook last time Fakir D'oudairies ran, and he was beaten 2L, after making a hash of the last, was also caught in a pocket for a bit, which didnt help. Ground will not be an issue. He stays which is important in a race like this as stamina will come into play. More importantly is that he has won at Cheltenham and came 4th in last years Supreme. The negative is that he hasnt been seen since December. 

 Put The Kettle On unlike his stablemate Notebook,  has won at Cheltenham, and he has won over fences here which is a double bonus. He beat Al Dancer and Rouge Vif in the Arkle Trial, hasn't run since November though. Soft ground over 2m wills suit well, he is so consistant, he can run well again. Probably not in the same league as his stablemate but he wont disappoint. 

 Global Citizen will also like the soft conditions and should go well, he was well beaten when running over hurdles at Cheltenham, which raises some red flags, and hasnt run since December either, but he beat Al Dance and Rouge Vif just like Put The Kettle on. He could run into a place

 I think Notebook will be hard to beat if he isnt affected by the occasion. So in theory my system is correct, and i will put him as my selection. I do believe the Fakir D'oudairies could very well reverse the form of their last meeting though, especially if it does get to Notebook. I wouldn't put you off Fakir D'oudairies. Im on at 12/1ew but i think he is a little short now for a what if Notebook acts up. 

 My Selection: Notebook 3/1 (maybe RFC with Fakir D'oudairies)





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