10/03/20 1:30 Cheltenham - Supreme - System

1st Chantry House 6/1 - 80
2nd Asterion Forlonge 5/2 - 60
3rd Abracadabra 11/2  - 55
4th Allart 25/1 - 50
4th Fiddlerontheroof 6/1 - 50

 This race has had me in circles for a while now.  So i am pleased i done this as i have liked Chantry House, and am happy to stick with my system.

 Chantry House is unbeaten in all 3 of his races. He won his last race carrying a penalty, and won it with ease. He is untested in this class, but his times put him right there with the others. He will love the ground, he also stays which is very important in this. Plus he is a winner at Cheltenham, which is a big bonus. He has big claims

 Asterion Forlonge won the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown with such ease, it pushed him right to the top of the betting for this. He is supposed to be a future 3 miler, so what he is achieving so far over 2m is impressive. Soft is fine for him, i cannot see the course causing any issues. He has massive claims and has the best form in the books. 

 Abracadabra is interesting, he was 4th in the Bumper here last year, so has course form. he was beaten by 2 runners who are unbeaten since, Envoi Allen and Thyme Hill, that's impressive form really and i think he has massive ew chance here. 

 Shishkin on scored 35 here which is a worry. He hasnt the form on soft, but has won on heavy, however the system only looks at soft as that will be the ground for the race. That is the slgiht flaw in the system when horses do not have many stats to their name. His speeds put him right there, a lot of backers following him, do more so on trust and potential rather than bare form like Asterion Forlonge, where they know what they are getting. He certainly has claims on speed, but my system will not recognize some form as it doesnt fit in with these race conditions. 

 Fiddlerontheroof won the Toworth on soft and very easily, so he will love the distance and going, you would expected him to score higher. What doesnt help is he is connections are not in the same form as some of the others in the race.

 Allart actually clocked a quicker time over 2m1f  than Chantry House but the courses were different, plus Chantry House was after a break and Allart was when he was race fit. So the potential to run a big race is there. 

I am certainyl sticking to my system. I think Shishkin is the unknown here and the danger, but am happy to have Chantry House ew

My Selection: Chantry House 6/1 ew

 

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