22/02/20 2:45 Newcastle - Eider - System
1st Fortified Bay 14/1 - 45
1st Ascot De Bruyere 33/1 - 45
2nd Glittering Love 7/1 - 35
Disappointed that there was no clear winner, but i am hopeful that the winner would be one of the above.
Prime Venture is going to be aided by Isobel Williams who claims a very handy 7lb off his back and all those lbs will count n what will be very heavy conditions. He is the only one who has ran this sort of trip and on heavy as well. He came 4th in the Midlands National over 4m 2f on heavy going. He was rated 3lb higher that day. Given 3lb less to carry though. But with Isobels claim he carries 11st 5lb, so he is slightly better off with the weight he will carry than in the Midlands National. He has big claims in conditions and a distance he relishes, and although he has never been to Newcastle, the track dynamics will suit him well.
Fortified Bay has run and won at Newcastle. However, and its a big however. He is going up in trip by a mile and on heavy ground. Its a tough one as the last time he ran over 3 miles it was 3m 2f and he was all but tailed off on soft ground. Its a risk to take following him, but Newcastle suits him. There is nothing to say he wont get the distance and he is the 2nd highest rated in the race.
Ascot De Bruyere came 6th in the Scottish Borders National, but on much better ground than he faces here. He has won on heavy at just under 3m, but he won by 24L, so maybe this is just what he needs. He could be interesting at a big price.
Glittering Love also unproven at this distance, but will like the going. Has won over 3m 1f on soft by 5L, so maybe the step up is what he needs, but its another risk.
For me the system igves 3 choices, i am going to go with the proven stayer here, but i am hopeful the winner is one of these
My Selection: Prime Venture 8/1
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