04/01/19 3:05 Cork - System

1st Mount Hanover 7/2 - 50
2nd Minella Till Dawn 4/1 - 45
3rd Sonny B 10/1 - 40
4th Debuchet 9/4 - 35

Surprising that a race of experienced horses has resulted in low scores. What strikes me straight away is how close it is, there is no stnadout here.

Mount Hanover just scraped the lead. He came 2nd last time out in a very similar race, but that was on heavy ground. He probably wants the rain to come, but soft should be ok. The winner of his last race has since gone very close in another similare race since. Mount Hanover and the winner had drawn well clear of the 3rd in that race, and MH was put up 5lb for that 2nd place. The distance is perfect with stats of 1, 1, PU, 2. The PU was in a Grade 2 and the 2nd was last time out. Trainer and jockey are in good form and he should go well. He is still a maiden over fences (from 3 runs), but his last run suggest a win is not far off.

Minella Till Dawn wears blinkers for the first time, the ground will be fine and has come a good 2nd over 2m 3f and his only win over hurdles came at this distance today. He is still a maiden in 8 chases though and fell last time out, which is a worry. The step back in distance is a bonus though, and if the blinkers work, he could go well, its just that fall last time out.

Sonny B has dropped 9lb in the handicap. 2 of his 4 wins have come here, but over hurdles. He will like the ground, but i think he has a bit to find with the others.

The favourite Debuchet is a very good horse, but because of that has a big weight to carry. He came 2nd to a very useful Paul Nicholls horse last time out. He is very consistant and will run a good race, but he has to give Mount Hanover 8lb which could mean all the difference.

My Selection: Mount Hanover 7/2