01/06/19 4:30 Epsom - The Derby - System

1st Madhmoon 9/1 - 45
1st Anthony Van Dyck 8/1 - 45
2nd Line OF Duty 33/1 - 40
3rd Circus Maximus 11/1 - 35
3rd Norway 40/1 - 35
3rd Telecaster 9/2 - 35

Just like the Oaks, this is a tight race, but this is even tighter at the top. Nothing between Madhmoon and Anthony Van Dyck.

Madhmoon hasnt run over 1m so far, but i don't think it will be a problem, 5 other horses have done the 2000gns straight to the Derby and won, including Masar last year who was 3rd in the 2000gns and won the Derby, Australia was another who was 2nd then won the Derby. Not sure he handled the dip at Newmarket but stayed on up the hill to take 4th. Has a good stall and has claims at an ew price.

Anthony Van Dyck won the Derby Trial at Lingfield, but that hasn't got the best record in this race with only 1 winner sin 18. That was High Rise in 1998. Most have been well beaten. But maybe Anthony Van Dyck can buck the trend. We know he stays, he has a good stall. He would be a good ew bet.

Line Of Duty is a big price and has an awful stall draw, but first time cheekpieces could help. I think you can ignore his York run, he is better than that.

Circus Maximus probably needed his last run, you will see a much improved horse in this. He has Cheekpieces on for the first time, but what worries me is the last 22 years there has only been 1 winner who has worn headgear (Ruler Of The World) and it wasnt for the first time.

Stalls can play a very important part in this. The low numbers in this case 1 - 3 horses can get blocked in on the rail, it has to be a good horse to win - the only winner from stall 1 has been Oath, in 22 years. The last 3 stalls are not great either, but less of a worry, although you want a horse who gets the trip in those stalls. Line Of Duty, Telecaster and Hiroshima have stalls 1 -3. Be wary of those.

I am going with Madhmoon here just because the stat of the Derby Trial really worries me with Anthony Van Dyck, however i wouldn't put you off an ew bet on him either.

My Selection: Madhmoon 8/1

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