13/04/19 The Scottish National 3:35 Ayr - System

1st Big River 10/1 - 55
1st Doing Fine 16/1 - 55
2nd Impulsive Star 16/1 - 50
2nd Takingrisks 20/1 - 50
3rd Chidswell 16/1 - 45
3rd Vintage Clouds 9/1 - 45
3rd Dingo Dollar 10/1 - 45
3rd Arthurs Gift 40/1 - 45

As you can see this is not as clear cut as the Grand National which is a shame, as i like one horse to stand out. I hope that the winner is named here. Everything is right for these horses to go well.

Big River wasn't a big surprise, he has a nice low weight. He ran a cracker behind Beware The Bear in the Ultima and was only beaten 7L. Beware The Bear is up 9lb for that run where as Big River is on the same mark, so he has a big swing here. He is versitile ground wise, but the better ground will help him get the distance. As long as he came out of Cheltenham ok then he has claims off a very nice weight. This is a race the trainer wants to win.

Doing Fine is 1lb lower than when he came 4th in this last year. That was off a break and this year he has had a wind op during that time. He is carrying 6lb less than last year as well, and he is a proper good ground horse, so the ground is just perfect. If he runs like he did last year, he will have big ew claims.

Impulsive Star pulled up at Cheltenham in the National Hunt over 4 miles, probably because he was hamapared and lost his place. Ground is fine he is a good stayer, he loves a flat track, so this will suit much better than Cheltenham. He is one of the least experienced though, but that also means he could still be improving.

Takingrisks form is 2, 4, 1, 1. at Ayr. Ground is fine and although unknown he should get this distance on the ground. Nice low racing weight, probably the stables second string as they run Chidswell, who won the Grimthorpe Chase beating Dingo Dollar. He loves the track, the going and although Dingo Dollar has a 6lb swing in the weights, Chidswell won by 9L, and i think if he is in the same form, then Dingo Dollar will not pass him.

Vintage Clouds is 7 & 3 in this race, the 3rd coming last year. He loves this type of track, and on flat tracks in his whole career has only been out the places 4 times in 14 runs on flat tracks.  We know he stays, and we know he likes the ground. He is 8lb higher than last year though which is a worry. He fell at the first at Aintree last week, so hopefully he hasn't suffered too much for that fall. He was 2nd before that behind Beware The Bear in the Ultima. Its obvious why he is favourite,  and if he jumps the first well, he has claims.

My Selection: Big River 10/1