26/12/18 3:05 Kempton - The King George - System
2nd Might Bite 5/2 - 90
3rd Politologue 5/1 - 80
3rd Tea For Two 50/1 - 80
4th Coneygree 28/1 - 75
5th Waiting Patiently 5/1 - 70
6th Clan Des Obeaux 16/1 - 55
7th Native River 13/2 - 45
8th Bristol De Mai 7/1 - 30
8th Double Shuffle 40/1 - 30
I have put all the runners up here, and just to expalin the system to those new as the above could look a little confusing. Its based on quite a few different elements, from how they have done over trip, going, at the track, going and trip combined, form of the trainer and jockey during the last 14 days, and them combined, plus a few other little elements. Each one is looked at, the best is scored with the most and the next best score half. Bristol De Mai didnt score as well, yes he won and beat most of these last time out, but he isnt effect on the going as some of the others, his trainer and jockey are not as in as good as form as the others, in fact Daryl Jacobs, has only an 11% strike rate, compared to Tom Scudamore 26% and Harry Cobden 28%. The system looks into a bit more details than the Rating/Going/Speed.
Thistlecrack is a previous winner of the race, probably one of the poorest in recent history, in my opinion. And if i am honest, i have never thought as highly of him as some do, but this is not about my opinion, my system tells me i am wrong. He ran a great race last time out on his seasonal debut, and it was possibly a bit to far for him on debut. At this distance he is 5 wins from 7 (only out the place once). On this going 5 wins from 6, obviosuly a C&D winner, although 4th in this last year, beaten 6L. Trainer has a 15% strike rate, jockey has 26%.
Might Bite, as most know now is my favourite horse in training, so i would like him to win. He won this well last year, so we know the course is no issue, he is 2 from 3 at the distance and 5 from 6 on this going. Trainer is going well with a 19% strike rate and his jockey 17%. He needs to show more than he did on his seasonal debut, but if he does, he goes with a chance.
Politologue looks like he wants further, and he may have scored more if he had gone further. He is 4/4 on this going though. And 2/2 at Kempton. Trainer and jockey are in great form. If he stays the distance, he has a lot in his favour.
Coneygree ran a corker on his seasonal debut in a Grade 3. He jumped so well, and had to carry top weight as well after over a year off. If he is back to his best, he will have claims, even though he is 11 now. There have been several winners come out of his last race. Daklondike and Cogry, so its not bad form. Probably would like it softer though. He may represent great value in the ew market.
I am not going to go into the others, but you have Waiting Patiently who is unbeaten over fences, and steps up in distance for the first time. Very much like Politologue in that its an unknown, but if he gets it. Bristol De Mai needs no introduction.
I think this is possibly one of the best King George's we have seen for a very long time. There are 6 runners in 10 who have won at least 1 Grade 1 in 2018, all are showing in great form. And i think its more open than the betting suggest. My system even suggests there are 5 or 6 in with a chance, and maybe it wont be in that order, i would hope the winner does come from the top 3-4 named.
Good Luck with whoever you choose. Whatever the result i am sure it will be an amazing race.
I personally am alreayd on Might Bite, but at 13/2 i need to stay faithful to my system, so a little ew on Thistlecrack as well
My Selection: Thistlecrack 13/2 ew
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