17/10/18 3:35 Nottingham - System

1st Collide 7/2 - 70
2nd Whitlock 4/1 - 55
2nd Indian Chief 25/1 - 55
2nd Contango 12/1 - 55
3rd Zeelander 7/1 - 50

As you can see it is a pretty close race. Collide just takes it on points though.

There is no clear Stalls advantage, but from the stats, it does seem to favour the lower numbers, but i wouldn't say the higher numbers are at a disadvantage.

Collide run well last time out in a better race than this, coming 4th in what was very testing conditions. The soft ground will suit better today and he has been dropped a pound in the handicap.

Contango and Inidian Chief were behind him that day, and funny enough i quite fancied Collide and Inidan Chief to go well that day, but the going was too much for both, and the better going today will suit both, even Contango.

James Doyle is booked on Collide today and yesterday he won 2 and a 2nd from 5 rides. He is in great form, and he has a 23% strike rate when teaming up with Hugo Palmer.

Whitlock needs to find a bit, and is untested on going this soft, but his trainer is in great form and Whitlock has come on leaps and bounds lately going up 18lb in the handicap since August.

Indian Chief's stats on soft are 1, 8, 4, 9, 1, 1, 8, 1, 6, 2. His last run on soft he was 2nd and rated 2lb higher than today, in this grae of race. His stats at Nottingham on Soft are 1, 4.  He has only won 5 times in this career and 4 of them came on soft the other on good-soft. So, he has the potential to go well today at nice odds.

Contango is 3lb higher than his last win, but that came on soft going and although it was very slightly easier than today, he won that by 11L, and he hasn't encountered soft ground since. He has a visor on for the first time. at 12/1 i think he represents great ew value.

I think Collide is the one to beat and am happy to go with the system, however if you are looking for an ew price, either Contango or Indian Chief could be the answer, with reference on Contango.

My Selection: Collide 7/2 (Contango 12/1 ew option)