08/09/18 3:35 Haydock - System
1st Clever Cookie 11/1 - 65
2nd Hochfield 7/1 - 60
3rd Mam'selle 7/2 - 35
First of all i need to say, at present it is Soft (Heavy in places) but there is 5 hours worth of heavy rain due or should i say it has already started. So this system is based on Heavy ground.
Bedrock has never encountered heavy ground before but he goes well on soft, even a 4th in a Grade 1 handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival, on soft over 2f more, so he will certainly have the stamina to deal with the heavy ground. He is 5lb higher that his last win on the flat. This is going to be a slog and he has a low weight and the stamina. I can see why he is 4/1
Clever Cookie is a grand old boy, but realistically these stats are based on all his form and he just isn't that horse anymore. Saying that he has enjoyed heavy going before, and came 7th in a similar type of race in March this year. And has dropped 8lb since then. Was beaten 16L though. He hasn't won for 2 years, and yes he is handicapped to go well, he hasn't been this low in the handicap since 2014 and he had 3 wins on the bounce to get him to 96. if he finds his old form, he would have a chance.
Hochfield could only manage 9th out of 10 in this last year on hevay ground, and is 2lb higher this time, his breeding suggests he would prefer better ground. He is hard to fancy.
Mam'selle has been competiting in better races lately but on firmer ground, and she looks to want a cut in the ground, but water logged conditions is a question mark. Breeding suggest she will not mind too much, but she needs to prove she stays.
My Selection: Bedrock 4/1
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