02/06/18 The Derby 4:30 Epsom - System

1st Saxon Warrior 10/11 - 60
2nd Young Rascal 8/1 - 45
3rd Kew Gardens 33/1 - 35
3rd Dee Ex Bee 22/1

Firstly i would like to point out the stall advantage in this race.In a 12 runner race at Epsom stalls 8-12 have a rather large 70% strike rate between them. Zabriskie, Young Rascal, Masar, The Pentagon, and Kew Gardens occupy these stalls. Young Rascal and Kew Gardens came in the top 4 here, which gives me hope they will run well. Zabraskie and The Pentagon i fear are pacemakers set to block runners and help Saxon Warrior from his poor stall. 

Deep Impact colt Saxon Warrior was a convincing winner of the 2000gns, and looked to want further. My biggest worry with him apart from his stall, is that his full sister Pavlenko run 4 times on Soft all in Listed races and in all was well beaten. Although SW won on soft it was over 1m, and he beat Kew Gardens and Delano Roosevelt that day, the question mark is will he get the extra distance on softer ground. The good news is, it is drying out all the time and may be good-soft all over tomorrow.

Kew Gardens as i said above was beaten by Saxon Warrior and well beaten by Knight To Behold in the Derby Trial, there is no doubting this horse has to step up on his last performances but the postive for him he is by Galileo who had the 1st and 3rd in the Oaks on Friday, and the winner hadn't even won before today. So you can never rule him out, plus he has a great stall.

Young Rascal was a impressive winner last time out he had so much trouble in running, even being intimidated by Dee Ex Bee didn't stop him, he obviously won with so much in hand, i don't think the softer ground will be a worry, even as its drying out, and we know he stays very well - i would even suggest this horse could be a St Leger horse, if the ground was ok. I cannot lie, i like Young Rascal.  He has a great stall and he could go close. 

Dee Ex Bee was well held by Young Rascal last time despite trying to keep him blocked (not on purpose)  and i cannot see the form being reversed.

My Selection: Saxon Warrior 10/11 (too short unless you are planning a big bet and i would suggest ew value in Kew Gardens or Young Rascal)


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