14/04/18 The Grand National 2018 - System
2nd Houblon Des Obeaux 40/1 - 55
3rd I Just Know 22/1 - 50
4th Blaklion 14/1 - 45
5th Virgilio 80/1 - 40
6th Seeyouatmidnight 14/1 - 35
7th Total Recall 14/1 - 30
Firstly no matter the stats, the Grand National is a lottery. The system is just a guide to what should go well, but anything can happen.
The Last Samurai was 2nd the Blaklion in the Bechers in December whilst carrying 6lb more, they meet again and Blaklion has 8lb more to carry so he now carries 2lb more than TLS, which could help TLS gain the upperhand. However this distance in soft ground is tough and they both have big weights, and you could certainly have to prefer TLS to Blaklion, that 2lb could make a big difference. TLS loves it at Aintree though with 2, 3, 16, 2. over the fences, he was carrying 2lb more last year than this year and came 16th. He will get round and give you a good run for your money.
Talking of weight earlier though, there has only every been 1 winner who carried more than 11st 1lb in 10 runnings on Heavy/Soft or Good-Soft. So of the above horses, Houblon Des Obeaux, I Just Know, Virgilio and Seeyouatmidnight, all carry less than 11st.
Houblon Des Obeaux never crossed my radar until today, he was 10th in this last year carrying 5lb more than today, but i do not recall the trainer being in the best of form last year, this year she is flying with a 41% strike rate, and with todays jockey, they have a 50% strike rate together. I am not saying he will win, but for 40/1 i would have an ew bet, he could go well.
I Just Know won the North Yorkshire National by quite a large distance, he relishes soft conditions and has a good weight, he is very interesting.
Seeyouatmidnght has a 3rd in the Scottish National to his name, off the same mark as today, which could give him good claims. however he has had his problems and needed his last run after a year off the track.
I think i will follow the system by backing the first 3 here, i think i would prefer the ones with slightly less weight but TLS has the form around the track
My Selection: The Last Samurai 22/1, Houblon Des Obeaux 40/1 and I Just Know 22/1
Thanks a lot for this suggest. I'm talking about numerous My partner and i tend to be ingenious in order to post. You nearly all drastically problem designed this site website influence one thing speciel. You clearly see that which you tend to be jaunty on, youve insured therefore numerous ladders. Sex Enhancement Pills Singapore
ReplyDelete