02/04/18 5:00 Fairyhouse - The Irish National - System

1st Bellshill 11/1 - 80
2nd Monbeg Notorious 15/2 - 50
3rd Dounikos 14/1 - 45
3rd Moulin A Vent 33/1 - 45
3rd Jetstream Jack 40/1 - 45

Firstly as there is plenty of rain forecast i have based this on heavy ground. Secondly, this is a big race a lot of horses and very bad ground. it will be survival of the fittest. My system can tell you the horses who have a good chance, but they need to jump well and get round.

Bellshill is unbeaten on heavy ground in 4 races, he will love the rain. He won here last time out over 3m 1f on soft and won easily as the others were strung out behind him. That was on the back of a year off and the handicapper was impressed as he was put out 16lb. He could go very well

Monbeg Notorious won the Thyestes at the beginning of the year and won well, it was also on heavy ground so he will not mind the rain. In fact his stats on heavy are 1, 2, 2, 1. The step up in distance should suit him he has a good weight and is 2/2in his visor.

Dounikos is interesting as Gordon Elliott kept saying he would win the 4 miler at Cheltenham , but the owner wanted him to go in the RSA. He ran badly in the RSA, but that was predicted. So he must have a chance in similar conditions albeit over 5f shorter. He is 2 wins from 3 on heavy ground. The step up is unknown but he was fancied for 4 miles. Has a good weight.

My Selection: Bellshill 11/1 (will do a small ew on Dounikos 14/1 trusting he will relish the step up) 


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