24/02/18 2:45 Newcastle - Eider Chase - System

1st Smooth Stepper 18/1 - 65
2nd Milansbar 12/1 - 55
3rd Back To The Thatch 7/1 - 50
3rd West Of The Edge 8/1 - 50
3rd Thebarrowman 20/1 - 50

This is going to be a true test of stamina. A true slog. But i hope the system has the winner in the 5 named above.

Smooth Stepper did well in what was a close race stats wise. He isnt the first chioce of the stable Jockey Danny Cook, which is a little worry. But he won here last time out on soft ground, beating Silver Tassie and Baywing quite convincingly, but both are weighted to go better than him here. He was 6th here last year and is 4lb higher this time around. His form at Newcastle is 3, 1, 2, 1, 6, 1.  So he does go particulary well here.

Milansbar had blinkers fitted last time out and that helped his revival as he won nicely, the 3rd that day has since gone on to come a closer 2nd in the Edinburgh National. If he can continue his new lease of life then he goes with a chance.

Back To The Thatch's connections have been flying lately and banging in the winners. His last run was impressive on heavy over just under 3 miles on heavy ground. The 3rd place horse has since gone on to win on heavy ground at Chepstow next time out by a very wide margin, which has really franked the form. Richard Johnson is on board and they have had some good runs with stats of 6, 1, 2, 2, 1. I think he has great ew prospects with a good weight.

West Of The Edge's connections are also banging in the winners. His last run was really good, and he beat some good stayers home on heavy ground. Emperors Choice won that day, but EC is a bit of a Haydock Specialist so WOTE's run was good. He is another who has very good chance.

Vinnie Lewis won nicely last time out and is in great form, Favourites do not have a great strike rate in this race on heavy ground though, in fact none have won. But stats are there to be broken.

This is a tough race. I really like Back To The Thatch and West Of The Edge ew. But i will stick with my system here as always and hope the stats shine through

My Selection: Smooth Stepper 18/1

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