27/01/18 2:25 Cheltenham - System
2nd Tea For Two 15/2 - 55
3rd Perfect Candidate 33/1 - 50
4th The Last Samurai 4/1 - 45
5th Theatre Guide 25/1 - 40
6th Singlefarmpayment 20/1 - 35
7th Bristol De Mai 7/4 - 30
8th Defintely Red 5/1 - 25
I decided to post up every runner becuase i think this is the first time ever that a system hasnt got a horses scroing the same. I don't for one minute believe that Bristol De Mai will come at the back of the field, but his stats are not that flattering. I will explain further on. But first i just want to take a moment to remind you that it was this race last year where Many Clouds, fought so gallantly, beating off Thistlecrack and Smad Place to win this, and then collapsed after the race and passed away. I cheered him on that day, even though i didnt have a bet. He was so brave, and was taken far too soon. Even today his death is still hard to take.
Very informative race this. American is such a fragile horse, it is a worry. Im sure we didnt see the best of him at Newbury. It was a big runner field and that's the first big field he has encountered. He certainly has the potential to win a race like this. His Novice Chasing form works out well with multipule winners behind him, these horses he beat with ease. Ground is perfect for hi, he is 3/3 on Soft. Even though he pulled up over this trip last time, the way he has won his previous races, suggest this trip up will not trouble him. The question mark is, is he too fragile to run in a race like this?
Tea For Two's price is almost insulting. His 3rd in the King George is probably the best recent form on offer here. Ok so Might Bite obviously idled in front, which he tends to do. But Tea For Two battled on and i really think he is underrated. However saying that, im not too sure how well he likes Cheltenham. With an UR and a PU here, he is yet to complete.That would be my only concern, and its a minor one, but one at this level has to be looked at.
Perfect Candidate was pulled up in this race last year, however unlike TFT, his stats here over fences are 5, 12, 2, 5, 10, 1, 10, 1, 2, PU, 10, 1. His last run here was on soft over a furlong further. No doubt he has to improve again, and at this age, its unlikely. Course Stats say he is due a bad run here. But as a whole, he could run well again. he certainly knows the track well.
The Last Samurai stays all day and rarely runs a bad race. He should be thereabouts.
So Bristol De Mai, why did he score badly? there are 4 other horses who go better than him on soft ground. He has won 3 in 8 (38%) on this going, its not bad but for example, American is 3/3 on the going and The Last Samurai is 5 wins from 8. Where as if there was rain, i would be telling you to fill your boots as he is 3/3 on heavy. Trainer form is woeful, only a 4% strike rate in recent weeks, compared to Americans 31% and Tea For Two's 30%, his jockey hasn't had a winner in the last 2 weeks either. This is a couple of reasons for his poor score. This horse however came 7th in a Gold Cup here, and it probably wasnt the strongest Gold Cup renewals last year, with lets be honest, some pretty poor results from those who took part. But that form alone should make him the horse to beat today. He had and excuse for his poor run last time out, with ulcers. I just couldn't back him at those odds, with a couple of worries, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him romp home.
I will stick to my system, although its probably not my most confident selection ever.
My Selection: American 4/1
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