09/12/17 2:45 Chepstow - System
1st Alfie Spinner 12/1 - 75
2nd Bob Ford 5/1 - 65
Firstly this is a very close race as i have 3 horses in 3rd Milansbar, Binge Drinker and Shotgun Paddy all on 60.
Looking at previous runnings of this race on heavy then horses carrying under 11st go much better, just to give you and idea, 25 horses have carried 11st or more, 1 horse won. Le Beau Bai (won the first running of the race) 2 horses 3rd and 2nd. 11 of them PU! 1 UR 2 Fell, and the rest trailed in the back of the field. Binge Drinker faces a very tough task carrying 11st 12lb and coming back from a a year off. 5/2 for me is far too short to back him, the ground will be ok but he would not want to run in a bog, which i suspect will be the case, it could well be bottomless groundout there today, he certainly has the class with the Might Bite form but he has a lot to do. Buywise and Wild West Wind are the other 2 to carry over 11st.
Blameitalonmyroots is a tough old girl, and she is 2/2 on heavy going, so she will enjoy todays conditions. One of those wins did come at 3miles as well. So she likes the going, the trip is fine and she carries bottom weight, she could go well.
Alfie Spinner is also as tough as old boots, but he is getting on now. He is however 2/2 on heavy at this distance, he carries a good weight, the booking of Richard Johnson is a positive, i would probably prefer him to just drop a few lbs in the handicap on a personal point, but he will always try his hardest.
Poor Bob Ford has exhanged hands 2 times this year. After being at Rebecca Curtis from the start. I remember her saying she saw him as a National Horse, and he goes well with a stamina test. He has won 4 times on heavy so that will not be a problem, he has stamina in abundance and could go well.
I am going with Blameitalonmyroots, as she is younger and possibly better handicapped than Alfie Spinner
My Selection: Blameitalonmyroots 16/1
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