01/10/17 Chantilly - including Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

 My views on Chantilly and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

1:10 Soustraction 12/1

Polydreams form against Laurens is very solid and makes her a worthy favourite for this and is the choice of Maxime Guyon, which does point to her being the main hope, however the soft conditions, I am not sure how well that will suit, by Oasis Dream I think she would prefer firmer conditions. Magical has form on the softer surface, she beat Happily the first time in a Group 2 and then Happily reversed the form In the Moyglare. As with Polydreams, she would probably prefer firmer conditions, but has shown that she can go well in the mud.  But I am going for SOUSTRACTION who is a big price, for a horse who won a Group 3 on this 2^nd run, the time was actually very good and it was over C&D (Wild Illusion is back in 3^rd). She won on soft that day, and is by Lope De Vega so the soft conditions will be prefect for her. I think she can cause an upset here.

1:45 Happily 15/8

Olmedo’s debut was nothing short of impressive, but his next run he was beaten by Stage Magic, and although he is sure to come on again with experience, I think I would prefer to side with HAPPILY, who has form on soft/heavy by winning the Moyglare, and if Magical wins the first race then Happily will be shorter. She is up against the boys and gets the Fillies allowance and that 4lb allowance will be a big advantage in trying conditions

3:05 Enable 1/1 – Order Of St George 9/1 ew

It’s going to be a day for the girls. I backed ENABLE a while ago for this. I am not going to lie, the ground is a worry, however she is by Nathaniel who has been a revelation with soft ground horses this year. There is a stall bias at Chantilly, they say low to middle, but stalls 2 and 4 seem to hold the edge. Brametot has stall 4 and Enable has stall 2. She also has the allowance and I think she will be hard to beat. Of the others Brametot cannot be discounted, obviously has a good stall, but that’s not the reason. Was beaten by Eminent last time, but he missed the break and was very slowly away. If he breaks on terms, he has a chance at big odds.

I was impressed with Dschingis Secret and his win the Prix Foy, he would have been my ew selection but his stall is not good.

Ulysses I am not sure can reverse the form with Enable. Order Of St George won so well on soft last time out, he has the stamina on his side, although his stall is not ideal. I think he is AOB’s best chance, plus he was 3rd in this last year. Winter has stamina doubts, and on this ground its not a good position to be in. And Capri although his St Leger win was very good, his stall is awful, and he would have to be something amazing to beat Enable from there. Satono Diamond was highly touted by connections, said he was the best they sent, but he was very poor in the Prix Foy on soft ground. I don’t think he will go on this either.

3:50 Lacazar 11/2 - NAP

In my opinion Hydrangea should not be favourite, she was well beaten by Winter on soft ground and I think she has something to prove at this distance. LAZACAR won the German Derby last time out and her speed was good in testing conditions. The rain is forecast and she will not mind more rain. I would be shocked if she didn’t go close. Only negative is the stall draw, which could cause her a few problems. But this will be run at a good gallop and be a real test, which she will love

4:35 Battaash 10/3

BATTAASH beat Marsha in soft conditions very easily in the King George Stakes. Marsha’s best form has come one Good and firmer. Profitable will enjoy these conditions but he too was beaten by Battaash in the King George Stakes. Now Battaash isn’t the most straightforward of horses, and some of the best sprinters ever had temperament issues. He got very worked up before his last race, and his race was over before he started. Signs Of Blessings is his main danger I believe, with form on Very Soft ground, beating Profitable with ease.

5:15 Karer 11/2

Zelzal was a non runner when it was soft last time, which is a worry, because he has never run on soft before. He is by Sea The Stars so it shouldn’t be a big worry, but I prefer KARER, he is a C&D winners last time out. His C&D form is 3, 2, 1. The 2^nd was in this race last year. His soft ground form looks like this 2, 1, 7, 1, 3, 1. And his soft form at this distance is 1, 3, 1.  I fancy him to go one better this year.