29/08/17 Interesting Horse

5:25 Ballinrobe Hello Sweetie 10/3

This horse caught my eye when looking at the going stats at Ballinrobe.

The Favourite Stormey looks very vulnerable here. Career high mark, top weight on heavy ground, which is not ideal, and although a winner on soft, he hasn't won on heavy and his sire September Storm has only a 3% strike rate on a Heavy surface. Too many negatives for me and 11/8 is a silly price.

Hello Sweetie has some good stats at Ballinrobe, 2, 4, 1, 1, 1. which is pretty impressive. Her sire suggests she should be ok on heavy with a 15% strike rate, and she has placed twice on heavy, but she would have to improve on those 2 placed efforts to figure. The claim of the jockey will be a massive help though. However the trainer is not in full flow but he has sent her a long way for this race, and i think she should be favourite here, and looks the one to beat.

California Soul could surprise a few here though, out of Yeats who has a 15% strike rate on heavy. Well beaten on his only race on heavy, but that was a while ago. The trainer has the best form in the last 14 days and he carries a low weight, so certainly one not to ignore.  Maybe a rfc




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