Top Tips 12/10/13

Chiberta King (pink) has a great chance to hit the jackpot today

4:25 Newmarket - Lightening Thunder 4/5 (Bet365) - NAP

Hoping the price will improve a bit. But 2 weeks ago, this filly lost out by a head to Miss France in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes. The winner impressed me so much, i backed her for the 1000gns. Now i am hoping that the race was no fluke and that Lightening Thunder will go on to win this very easily. If she does then Miss France will look very good.

 

 

3:00 Chepstow - Killala Quey 11/10

4:45 Chepstow - Another Hero 7/2

5:45 Chepstow - Pete The Feat 6/1 e/w

3:50 Newmarket - Chiberta King 25/1 Boylesports (Broxbourne 28/1 William Hill)

I have backed both of these. I will give my reasons for both

Chiberta King - Oisin Murphy takes the ride here, and he has been in cracking form recently. Claiming a useful 5lb too which will help. The going is Good - Firm which he will go on however there is a Yellow Warning for rain at Newmarket overnight and in the morning, and it looks like Good or Good -soft could be more like it, in which case that will make no difference to this fella or Broxbourne i might add, in fact she would prefer some juice in the ground. But the main reason i like him is because of the stalls. In a 2m 2f you would think that stalls would not matter. Well in this race it could mean everything, and with 36 runners, there have been 2 races which have qualified and both the winners of the race came out of stall 1, which is Chiberta Kings stall. 

Broxbourne - Well you all know by now that i follow her, and will always have a little bet. She is drawn 22, which is not good.  Would of liked to have seen her a bit lower. However it's not to be. What she does have in her favour is hopefully the going, the stamina to see out this distance and a nice weight. I had put her last 2 losses down to too much weight, although last time out she just wasn't right. If she is back to her best then she has a great e/w chance. Obviously she was beaten by stable mate Oriental Fox that day and they re-oppose each other and Broxbourne is 15lb better off. although she was beaten well over 30L she was eased 2f out. We just have to hope she gets her sparkle back. 

 

  Stall Analysis for Newmarket - based on Good ground and Good - Soft due to forecast rain

2:05 

7. Trumpet Major 100% (1)

Only 1 race qualified under conditions. If i really widen the stats, there is no particular trend except that more winners have come from Stall 6 - Darwin. So for this i would be concentrating on just these 2.

2:35 

1. Brown Sugar 50% (1)

12. Hot Streak 50% (1)

Another race with no conclusive trend. But these 2 certainly have their chances increased.

3:10 

3. Anjaal 50% (2)

4. Cable Bay 25% (1)

5. War Command 25% (1)

Stall 3 does well in exact conditions, and if i widen the search, then there does seem to be a small bias for stall 3. If Anjaal can run a big race then has every chance here. War Command couldn't be dismissed in a ok stall.

3:50 

1. Chiberta King 100%

You all know the stats on this horse. In a race of this distance the trends suggest the lower number the better.

4:25 

Really no conclusive evidence for this number of runners, other stats for different runners shows that Stall 6 (Blockade) seems to hold an advantage. However if i widen the stats then Stall 3 (Valonia) comes up 

4:55

9. Oklahoma City 100% (1)

Stall 9 comes up under conditions, widening the search it also throws up stall 5 (Kingston Hill) but Oklahoma City looks the horse to concentrate on

 

5:25

1. Tullius 100% (1)

even widening the search it throws up no more info. So i can only go with one horse here and that's Tullius.

 

In short the stalls throw up the following choices for Newmarket

 2:05 Trumpet Major 8/1 & Darwin 11/4

2:35 Hot Streak 9/2 & Brown Sugar 16/1

3:10 Anjaal 7/1 & War Command 6/5

3:50 Chiberta King 25/1

4:25 Blockade 20/1 & Valonia 8/1

4:55 Oklahoma City 9/4 & Kingston Hill 8/1

5:25 Tullius 7/1