Top Tips 10/9/13

Dawn Commander


3:30 - Worcester - Our Kaempfer 10/11 - £19.09
3:50 Exeter - Dawn Commander 2/1 (nap) - £30
4:40 Ayr - Ingelby Angel  9/2
6:10 Kempton - Much Promise 5/2

£40 stake - £49.09 returns = £9.09 profit

2:40 Ayr - Gracie's Games 25/1

Very risky, this is just a little interest bet for me, but it could be worth taking a chance. 

She hasn't really been in great form but here are the reason i am backing her. Firstly, her stables are in Worcester. She is running at Ayr, the reason is probably the going. Gracie's Games prefers soft.

Stats on soft over 6f is 11**, 1, 1*, 4*, 1, 3, 2*, 5, 4. (each * a step up in class that today. Her last race on soft she was beaten 2 1/2L. Today she 1lb less in the handicap and carrying 6lb less in the weights. and from LWR is 4lb less in the handicap.

 I'm under no illusions that she has to improve a lot to get into the frame, however the soft ground might work and the trip up there needs to be worth it.

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