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Orfevre

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Last year i did a review of the race and in my top 4, i came up with the 40/1 Solemia. So maybe i can come up with the winner again. Not sure the winner will be that big odds this year though.

The rain played a big part last year.  And as the forecast suggests it will rain all day Saturday and there are possibilities of thunder storms. So once again i will be looking for a horse which will enjoy the soft/heavy ground. And although the going is Soft in France, their soft tends to be our Heavy.

Just a quick note. I do go on a lot about stall draw. Stall draw is very important here, with 7 and under holding a definite advantage. Anything higher is a negative.

Ruled Out Horses

 Al Kazeem  20/1 – has been in outstanding form this year, and although is not happy on firm ground, he is unproven on anything softer than good-soft, and his only attempt at soft was on his first run where he was soundly beaten. That doesn’t really tell me much, but i want a horse who is proven on the going. He does get the extra 2 furlongs, although his best form is at 1m 2f

Haya Landa 150/1 – was in this last year when a respectable 4^th in heavy conditions.  Had an excellent stall draw on that occasion whereas this time is drawn stall 17. Has been beaten by several of today’s runners, and would be surprised to see this one in the top 4.

Going Somewhere 100/1 – Has a nice stall draw, but that’s probably it. Beaten last time out by Orfevre over course, distance and on soft going, was beaten by 2 others who are in today’s race as well. Never had a chance with the winner and would need a very big turnaround in the form for that to change this time. Distance will not be a problem though.

Joshua Tree 100/1 – Completely tailed off when beaten by Novellist on soft ground at Saint Cloud, also beaten by Haya Landa and Pirika that day. In my opinion his best form is on good ground and doesn’t stand a chance here.

A Very Nice Name 66/1 – goes ok on soft ground, and most recently a 2^nd to Orfevre in the Prix Foy. Beaten well that day, but 2 things to note about it was,  firstly he had no room 2f out but managed to get out, got headed 1f out but stayed on again. He has a plum stall draw today. Not sure he can reverse the form of his last race, but could be a lot closer. You could also argue he was soundly beaten by Novellist, however that was on Good-Firm and AVNN prefers softer ground, i do not think he will win this but could be close by and at 66/1 that is some nice odds for an e/w. Just depends on how much Orfevre needed the run in the Prix Foy.

Pirika 100/1 – Same reason as A Very Nice Name. I am basing these horses on the supposed class of Orfevre and that he possibly needed the run. Pirika was only 3/4L behind A Very Nice Name when they were beaten over C&D by Orfevre. Pirika once again gets a good stall draw and was also staying on in the last furlong. Possible place chances.

Ocovango 33/1 – has his work cut out from stall 13. Although goes well on this ground. In my opinion will need to step up to beat several of these.

Penglai Pavilion 50/1 – Listed winner relishes the softer ground, although close in a G2 would need to step up a considerable amount to take this prize.  If the conditions get really dire then you might consider him, but until then i have to rule him out.  

Kizuna 8/1 – another Japanese horse with a chance. Won the Prix Neil on the line, just beating Ruler Of The World. It’s got to be close between them again. However  Ruler Of The World could possibly turn the form around because Kizuna is drawn 11 of 18 to Ruler Of The Worlds  stall 6. Also  the fact that Flintshire can also turn the form around as well as he had a bad draw that day. I have ruled him for that basis only. It might be a wrong decision but i feel sure of a reversal of form.  

Sahawar 150/1 – furthest he has won is 1m 2f, although placed ok at 1m 4f and goes well on soft, would still need to step up big time to be in with a chance.

Treve 5/1 – I like this filly and was torn, i decided to rule her out, mainly because of her stall draw, 15 of 18, and although i liked the way she won last time out over Course and Distance, she was very game. But i do wonder what she beat that day and she was drawn stall 3. This is certainly a lot better opposition  today, and i feel she will have to dig deeper.

Flintshire 14/1 – I am a bit undecided about this horse. There is a lot that tells me he has every chance, and on the other hand there is the ground. This is Andre Fabre’s possible first string, but the fact that James Doyle is not riding the horse for his new boss and riding Al Kazeem instead raises a couple of questions. Either James Doyle prefers Al Kazeems chances or they have kept regular jockey Maxime Guyon on the horse as he knows him best. However Flintshire’s 2 defeats have both come on soft ground, and that is a big negative here, even though you could probably forgive his last defeat on soft, not beaten far with a high stall draw 9 of 10 runners.

There are a few on the above list who might squeak places. I have ruled them out of being the winner. The horses below i hope in the list is the winner plus the others who should fill the places.

Ruler of The World 12/1 – This year’s Derby winner, was beaten over course and distance on the line by Kizuna. He can turn that form around especially as the stall draw is slightly in his favour.  Had Flintshire and Ocovango behind him that day would be surprised if Ocovango could turn the form around but Flintshire looks good to turn the form around . Soft ground is a slight worry but should give a solid performance with an experienced jockey on board.

Leading Light 14/1 – St Leger winner does have stamina on his side, has won on heavy, however it was over 1m 1f in a Maiden. He is better over further and although a drop back in distance should not be a problem on this testing ground, i just worry there are better horses in the race who are more effective. However he is in my list of a horse with a chance, because the ground shouldn’t worry him to much and his stamina could shine here. Also has a handy stall draw.

Orfevre 5/2 – has to be put in this list. Same build up as last year with a victory in the Prix Foy, he then went on to run a very close 2^nd to Solemia this time last year  on heavy going, even though being drawn stall 18 of 18 runners. Maybe if he had a better draw he would of won it. He has a slightly better stall this time with stall 8 of 18, and even after having a 6 month break, came back to score well in the Prix Foy. Presuming he has come on from that run, he will not be far away again.

Meandre 50/1 – Well beaten in this last year, but maybe just to soft for him and was drawn in stall 13. He does go well on soft, drawn stall 2 this time out and after a Group 1 win last time out looks to be in form again. He has not been beaten far by Novellist or Orfevre in the past and i wouldn’t be surprised to see him there at the end. E/w chance.

Intello 12/1 – Another horse i like a lot, but he hasn’t raced at 1m 4f before, the step up should suit though. Not too badly drawn and at least an e/w chance, as he doesn’t mind the soft going. Wouldn’t be surprised if he won this

My Prediction

1^st Orfevre 5/2

2^nd Intello 12/1

3^rd Leading Light 14/1

4^th Meandre 50/1

5^th Ruler of The World 12/1