Top Tips 8/9/13

Mince

No daily tips now until Tuesday i am doing these today

2:00 York - Zeshov 4/1 WH- 

Bumped into Bunker and Bureau on his 2 previous races. Bunker went on to come 2nd to Berkshire in a Listed race and then himself went onto win a Listed race. Bureau was beaten by Zeshov, but has since gone onto win twice himself. Plus a few other winners have come out of that race too. The ground today will suit and with a little break he will come here fresh.

3:00 York - Mince 7/2 PP - 

Mince showed so much promise last year, but has been very disappointing so far. However she won this race last year, very easily, on a handicap mark of 105, which she is back to today, and she carried 8st 11lb that day, today she carries 8st 9lb. She is more than capable of winning this of todays mark. Last time out saw an improvement with the application of blinkers. (3rd in G3) today she wears a visor, and fingers crossed she is back to herself. If she is, a very big run can be expected.



3:00 York

1st    Mince 3/1 - 95
         Ladies Are Forever 6/1 - 95
2nd   Nocturn 6/1 - 45
3rd   Royal Rock - 25/1 - 40
        Smoothtalkinrascal 13/2 - 40
4th   Hallelujah 7/1 - 35
5th   Mirza 22/1 - 30
6th   Hitchens 10/1 - 25

Ladies Are Forever and Mince where well clear of all the others. Mince scored very highly on the main stats and stood out, Nocturn scraped 2nd and LAF 3rd. But LAF caught up in the speed stats, and scored very highly 55 points came from the speed stats, and Mince scored 2nd with 35 on speed. I should think the first 4 in this system with all and should be in the first 4 home.

Stall Analysis for the 3:00 York

1. Hallelujah 100% (only one race fitted the profile though)

Only one race fitted the profile and that winner came from stall 1. I checked out races under the same conditions though with different runners and up to 12 runners (this race has 12) in a race, the stalls favoured low stall draws, mainly stall 1, if this is correct then it would favour the likes of Hallelujah, Nocturn and Royal Rock. However 13 runner races plus in these conditions favour the middle stalls and the more runners, starts to favour the higher numbers, so if that would bring in Smoothtalkingrascal, Mass Rally, Ladies Are Forever and Mince.      


4:05 York

1st Recession Proof 14/1 - 90
2nd Porcini 25/1 - 55
3rd Eagle Rock 10/1 - 35
4th Medieval Bishop 14/1 - 30
5th Hawk Mountain 9/1 - 25

Recession Proof  came 2nd to Porcini on the main stats, but scored 40 to Porcini's 55. As you see Porcini didn't rate highly at all in the speed stats (which could be irrelevant as 2m race) but Recession Proff scored very highly on speed stats, and these stats not only take in going and track, they take into consideration the trip too. I would be very surprised if Recession proof was outside the top 3, but based on this he should win this.

Stall Analysis was done on this race, but it came out inconclusive, although in other races over 2miles there have been winners from the extremes, so could favour My Destination and Eagle Rock