Top Tips 3/9/13

Dance With Dragons

5:00 Musselburgh - Jan Smuts 9/2 was 7/1 (nap)

I had this horse highlighted when 11/2, but now 9/2 so i apologise for not getting it out sooner. Jan Smuts looks to be hitting form again, 2/2 over C&D carrying 9st 9lb today has won carrying 10st 4lb and is only 3lb higher in the handicap since that last win over C&D, also his jockey claims a useful 5lb. He possibly could of won last time out, but he missed the break lost maybe 3-4L, and after reviewing the race, about 1f out there seemed to be a dropping of the reins, although he never lost momentum i think he slowed a bit.  Even so still did very well to come 2nd, and if he breaks well today then should have every chance.


3:40 Leicester - Dance With Dragons 8/1 
4:25 Musselburgh - La Bacouetteuse 15/2
5:10 Goodwood - Commanche 8/1
5:50 Lingfield - Take Cover 3/1


£40 stake - £0 returns = - £40 loss

and last of all Broxbourne

4:40 Goodwood - Broxbourne 4/1

We have quite a few new followers, so i thought i would explain my position. I have followed Broxbourne from the very start, and try and write a piece about her. She has done very well for us in the past, but today i think it might be her hardest task yet. However i give her a chance again, why? because of the ground. In truth i thought good-firm last time out might of proved a bit quick for her. Although Goodwood's going is Good-Firm, it is actually good in places, and the straight course is Good. Good or a little softer probably suits her best. And she beat Mawaqeet by 13L on good ground a couple if races before, but she only beat him by a neck last time out, although i do not think Mawaqeet got the extra 5f the time before he certainly got the drop back to 2m last time out. he has gone up 4lb whilst Broxbourne has gone up 5lb, which could be the difference. However i still think Broxbourne has a bit more improvement in her, she is carrying a very big weight, she hasn't carried this kind of weight before. So i will still have a little on her, but Mawaqeet is certainly now handicapped to beat her, and Argent Knight who is carrying 18lb less weight.

Stall Analysis for the 4:40 Goodwood

2. Ray Ward 29% - looks the best out of these 4
7. Aquilonius 29%
9. Martin Chuzzlewit 29%
5. Arch Villian 14%


 Stall Analysis on the 5:10 Goodwood 6f Handicap

1. Commanche 29%
6. Jubilee Brig 29%
3. Clear Praise 14%
4. Valmina 14%
8. Johnny Castle 14%

Stall Analysis

3:40 Leicester

10. Bogsnog 40%
1. Ceelo 20%
6. Dance With Dragons 20%
8. Ortac Rock 20%


5:15 Lingfield

5. Million Faces 25%
7. Pucon 25%
8. Royal Bajan 25%
1. Excellent Aim 13%
6. Irish Boy 13%


7:20 Lingfield

4. Sweet Martoni 33%
9. Flemish School 33%
5. Prospera 17%
3. Codebreaker 17%