Top Tips 2/9/13

Mandalay King


4:40 Hamilton - Mandalay King 16/1 (nap) bet365

First of all the stalls stats show 50% from Mandalay Kings stall, and 50% with Beckermet's. A nice bonus, but not the reason i decided on this horse as a nap. The reason is because of the favourite Gran Canaria Queen (GCQ) who MK met twice, once over C&D and another at Thirsk.

I looked back to the Hamilton race and that day, MK carried 9st 9lb and was on a handicap rating of 69, whilst GCQ carried 8st 8lb and was handicapped 51. Today MK carries only 8st 5lb and handicap is 67, and GQQ carries 8st 8lb and is up to 70 in the handicap. So if i am correct GCQ has gone up 19lb in the handicap since and MK has gone down 2lb in the handicap and down a massive 18lb in the weights. Also his jockey claims 5lb. So if my maths is correct MK is down a total of 25lb, whilst GCQ is up 19lbs.

They met again at Thirsk where GCQ beat MK by 5L, but MK had to carry a massive 9st 13lb, which was 4lb than Hamilton, but GCQ was also carrying 4lb more in the weights, but still MK had to carry 15lb more weight, GCQ was only put up 4lb by the handicapper, So even if i take the workings out from that race MK is now 22lb lower in the weights and is -2lb lower in the handicap, with the 5lb claim from the jockey is a total of  29lb less and GCQ is 4lb less in the weights and 14lb higher in the handicap making just 10lb more in total.

Phew. i hope i haven't confused everyone with with all those numbers, but in basic form since their first clash over C&D. MK is carrying a lot less in weight which should give him a fighting chance here. stats over Course, Distance and on good ground is 2, 3, 7, 1 , the 7th could well be ignored as the horse was rated 78 in the handicap 9lb higher than today and carrying 9st 10lb, which is 19lb higher than today. My only worry on this horse is it's a step up in class and will have to find more.



 Other tips

2:20 Ffos Las - Ryan Style 8/1
2:40 Hamilton - Ted's Brother 6/1
5:00 Brighton - Benandonner 13/2
5:30 Brighton - Patavium Prince 10/1

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