Top Tips 28/9/13

Berkshire

2:00 Newmarket - Berkshire 1/1 (nap) - £20

I hate going on a short nap, but me and as i am sure many others have been waiting form Berkshire's reappearance since Royal Ascot. The extra furlong today will help. That race has produced some nice winners. Here are a the 3 main ones.

2nd Bunker - won a Listed race since
3rd Ihtimal - gone onto win a G3 and G2 race, and yesterday 3rd in a G1
4th Somewhat - 2nd in a Group 2 by a head and has won a Listed race.

If Berkshire reproduces that then he should win this. Kingfisher might be a danger, but would need to find a bit. Somewhat was beaten 8l, and Sir Jack Layden 10l byt Berkshire last time, and i really cannot see them reversing the form here.

2:15 Navan - Celestial Prospect 13/2 (pp) e/w - NB  - £49
3:20 Market Rasen - O' Crotaigh 7/1 e/w - £12
5:00 Newmarket - Majestic Moon 8/1 e/w
9:00 Wolves - Living The Life 9/4


£50 stakes - £81 returns = £31 profit

Stall Analysis and System

4:25 Newmarket

Stalls

4. Ticking Katie 50% (2)
2. Heskin 25% (1)
7. Bureau 25% (1)


System

1st Captain Secret 8/1 - 50
2nd Remember 3/1 - 45
3rd Autumn Lily 12/1 - 40
4th Bureau 8/1 - 30

Ticking Katie looks to have the best stall, widening the criteris you could also include stall 7 and 5 which would bring Bureau and Thewandaofu into it. Captain Secret was impressive compared to the others in the stats, even though he only just came out on top. The stats he did qualify on, he was top. Looking at this i would look towards Ticking Katie, Captain Secret or even Bureau, who appeared in both lists.



5:00 Newmarket

Stalls

3. Pied A Terre 50% (1)
9. Gold Hunter 50% (1)

System

1st Majestic Moon 9/1 - 40
2nd Spin Artist 16/1 - 20
2nd Tariq Too 14/1 - 20
3rd Ayaar 10/1 - 10
3rd Mezzotinit 10/1 - 10
3rd Spiritual Star 33/1 - 10
3rd Flyman 7/1 - 10

Both the Godolphin horses come top in the stalls analysis , and Gold Hunter looks to have a cracking chance here. As only 2 qualifiers if you widen the search , stall 3 is actually the better stall, but it also shows a small advantage to stall 1 which is Tariq Too. The main system shows Majestic Moon as the clear winner, and as my top tip that's a great comfort. Tariq Too is joint 2nd and with a possabilty of a good stall draw, could be up there at the end. I would have this race between Majestic Moon, Gold Hunter and Tariq Too.


4:40 Haydock

Stalls

2. Missed Call 100% (1)

System 

1st Vicksburg 13/2 - 50
2nd Missed Call 11/4 - 45
3rd Cruck Realta 20/1 - 35
4th Heavenly Sound 10/1 - 20


Only one race qualified for the stalls analysis. If i widen the criteria then it also throws in stalls, 5, and 8 - 11. Not much of a trend, if i widen the search even more to all races run over that distance at Haydock then it shows stall 2 and 10 with a advantage overall, which cuts it down to Missed Call and Wall Of Sound.

Onto the system and there were 2 horses who were pretty neck and neck all the way. Missed Call and Vicksburg. Vicksburg just edged it in the speed stats. Heavenly Sound is interesting, with only 1 race it's hard to give the horse a high score, so she might be one to keep an eye on.

Combining the 2 I would have to say Missed Call 11/4, and Vickburg 13/2 will both be there at the end. My personal preference would be Vickburg as her last race there have been 3 winners since, who came behind her that day, and a good e/w price. But Missed Call looks the horse to beat.


3:45 Ripon

System

1st Spinatrix 11/2 - 70
2nd Doc Hay 9/2 - 40
3rd El Viento 9/1 - 35
4th Seeking Magic 13/2 - 25

The stalls analysis is not conclusive however widening the criteria  does show a preference to the higher stalls, in fact Spinatrix, Fast Shot, Chooseday, El Viento, Above Standard and Doc Hays stalls had the most winners.

In the system Spinatrix was a cut above the rest. now Spinatrix is a horse i follow and she is very tough. Her stall is good too so would make he the pick for me. But Doc Hay and El Viento also did well in the system and have a good stall. There was one horse how doesn't show up, and that is Chooseday, who had very little stats to go on.