Top Tips 27/9/13

4:45 Haydock - Eshtiaal 11/4 - nap

Will want a strong gallop which he will get here. The extra 2f will be very much suit, he ran on strongly in his last race snatching third from Glenard. Connections say he has a "great chance" too.

2:30 Haydock - Alfaayza 12/1 e/w
3:25 Worcester - Chalk It Down 5/2
9:10 Wolverhampton - Mizyen 6/1 e/w


Will look tomorrow to to see if there is anything else.


Stall Stats

1:40 Newmarket

3. Miss France 29% (2)
1. Sleepy Sioux 14% (1)
2. Midnite Angel 14%
4. Lightening Thunder  14%
7. Stealth Missile 14%
9. Radiator 14%

System 

1st Lightening Thunder 13/2 - 50
2nd Radiator 1/1 - 45
3rd Gown 50/1 - 35
3rd Stealth Missile 16/1 - 35
4th Midnite Angel 10/1 - 30

No real stalls stats under exact conditions, stall 3 edges it, but if you widen the criteria there seems to be a slight advantage to stall 7, this is also highlighted in the other race i looked at over 1f further. So that looks to be a positive for Stealth Missile. Looking at the system There is no much between Lightening Thunder and Radiator, although Lightening Strike looked to have the better stats.  Stealth Missile is in there too with a good score. Miss france doesn't appear in the top few only because i do not have all the info i need on the horse, so you cannot rule her out, and seeing as her stall has had the most wins then she has to enter the calculations. In short there looks to be 3 main contenders for Lightening Strike, Radiator and Miss France, with a e/w chance to Stealth Missile.



3:15 Newmarket

Stall Stats 

2. Sound Reflection 50% (1)
7. Avenue Gabriel 50% (1)

System

1st Rizeena 2/1 - 45
2nd Avenue Gabriel 16/1 - 40
2nd Ballybacka Queen 25/1 - 40
3rd Sound Reflection 6/1 - 30
4th Chriselliam 25/1 - 25
4th Ihtimal 2/1 - 25

Only 2 races have been run under exact conditions, but as the race before, upon widening the criteria there shows a small advantage to stall 7. Rizeena is the best in the stats, but surprisinly Ihtimal was so far down. Avenue Gabriel not only has a good stall draw but also comes high in the stats so for me Rizeena will be the one to beat and Avenue Gabriel could be a nice e/w prospect.