Top Tips 21/9/13

Broxbourne

2:05 Ayr - First Mohican 9/4
2:20 Newbury - Shamshon 2/1 (nap)
2:40 Ayr - Harrison George 12/1
3:30 Newbury - Ballesteros 20/1
3:40 Newmarket - Broxbourne 7/1
5:05 Catterick - Beat The Shower 6/1
5:55 Newmarket - Brownsea Brink 12/1
7:50 Wolves - Brynford 4/1


3:50 Ayr - Ayr Gold Cup - Khubala 11/1

Someone told me a few weeks ago to get on to Khubala at 20/1, which i have done. I have some money on the horse so obviously i am hoping he goes well. And in truth i think he has every chance. Goes well on soft ground and is drawn well. But 2 other horses stood out in this for me, obviously Jack Dexter is the main horse 5/5 on soft, i only have one worry for him and that's the weigh he is carrying. He is giving 11lbs to Khubala. Now looking at the stalls, i think the best horses are drawn high, you have Jack Dexter, Tropics, Spinatrix, Khubala, Hoof It, Mass Rally, and Highland Colori. Hasopop looks to have a nice draw though on the stalls analysis. I think the high numbers , that's where the winner will come from. However a friend pointed out that you could have some speed in the lower drawn stalls. I do agree with this, however Spinatrix, who also stood out for me is drawn high and she will set the pace that side and she is not slow, she enjoys the ground and after going through this race. Khubala, Jack Dexter and Spinatrix all have a good chance. ( i will be doing a system on this - please look below for it)


3:40 Newmarket - Broxbourne 7/1

She has every chance today. Carrying 5lb less in the weights which is better than nothing. Still on the same handicap mark. This extra distance could help her and the good ground will be ground she will e fine on. I do have Eagle Rock as a big danger though. However 7/1 is a nice e/w price.




System for 3:50 Ayr

1st Tropics 12/1 - 70
2nd Jack Dexter 7/1 - 45
3rd Joe Eile 20/1 - 30
4th Nocturn 25/1 - 25
4th Heaven's Guest 25/1 - 25


Tropics did very well on the main stats and the speed stats, If i went on just these stats then Tropics would be the horse. Does fit in with my high draw theory too as drawn 26 of 27. Joe Eile also did well on speed, whilst Jack Dexter as we though scored well on the main stats.

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