Top Tips 14/9/13

Cap O'Rushes

3:50 Doncaster - Cap O'Rushes 20/1 (PP)

The rain that is coming tonight will be a god send for Cap O'Rushes in fact i think the more it rains the better. I think he could be the forgotten horse here but you cannot discount him. The extra distance will not be an issue. Beaten a head by Excess Knowledge in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes despite taking keen hold early on. On that form alone it should put him in the mix.


3:30 Chester - Mick's Your Man 14/1 e/w
5:50 Lingfield - Commandingprescence 10/1
8:30 Kempton - Ocean legend 8/1
5:20 Lingfield - Intibaah 7/2

Am waiting to see what the going is for Doncaster tomorrow before i look at anything else


Stall's Analysis

2:05 Doncaster (6 qualifying races)

3. Picks Pinta  40% (2)
6. The Grey Gatsby 40% (2)
5. Outstrip 20% (1)
7. Cable Bay 20% (1)

on 6 races qualified, but i had noticed a trend in this but it doesn't matter now. Stall 3 showed an slight advantage in all races around with different runners. But Picks Pinta is now a none runner. I had selected The Grey Gatsby in this race beforehand and i do think it will be between him and Outstrip, so it will be these 2 who have stalls next to each other, who could go very well.


2:40 Doncaster (7 qualifying races)

21. Barnet Fair 29% (2)
22. Doctor Parkes 29% (2)
6. Monsieur Chevalier 14% (1)
15. Definightly 14% (1)
19.Inxile 15 (1)

Although only 7 races qualify, here is already a pattern here, the higher the stall the better. This is replicated on other number of runners in a field. Out of all these though Barnet Fair and Doctor Parkes look to need firmer ground than they will get today. Inxile i am not sure if ground will suit either but more concerned is that he is no no kind of form. So that leaves Monsieur Chevalier and Definightly.  MC has visors fitted today, and that might help, although he could be better over slightly further, but he will enjoy the ground and could go well. Definightly hasn't run since April, that would be a concern, but he has won a Group 3 on todays ground beaten Judge N Jury over 5f. Could be dangerous, and the horse i would look towards, despite him carrying top weight. But there could be several high stalls not on this list that could go ok.



3:50 Doncaster

Based on a general stall analysis for the St Leger for the last 16 years

For a win the best stall is

9. Foundry 21%

Worst

4. Talent 0%
10. Cap O'Rushes 0%

Best stall for a place

3. Great Hall 50%
7. Leading Light 44%

Worst Stall

11. Excess Knowledge 17%
10. Cap O'Rushes 0%

Obviously i hope Cap O'Rushes changes all that today. Records are there to be broken. So if this is right then the 1, 2, 3 are

1. Foundry 6/1
2. Great Hall 33/1
3. Leading Light 6/1