Top Tips 13/9/13

Ambiance coming 4th to No Nay Never

1:40 Doncaster - Ambiance 5/1 e/w (nap)

Am advising e/w as this is a hot little race, but i do think he can win this. He has put up some good solid performances including a 4th behind No Nay Never. Fitted with a visor last time and he certainly light him up, maybe a bit more than they would of hoped. The visor remains on today, and hopefully he has learnt  from that. Just looking at his 3rd on good-soft behind Brown Sugar should put him up there again. And with Thunder Strike an unknown on this going, and he being the preference to Fast, out of the Hannon pair. He could take this. Excel's Beauty would need to step up on her last couple of runs, although she has done ok on softer ground. But Ambiance connections think a lot of him.

3:05 Sandown - Breden 11/2 e/w

William Buick likes this horse, and cannot explain why he didn't go well last time over C&D. But today he should appreciate a little cut int he ground and hopefully bounce back to his best.

2:10 Doncaster - Pether's Moon 6/1 e/w
3:50 Doncaster - Barley Mow 9/4
4:50 Sandown - Anya 5/1 e/w
8:30 Wolverhampton - Ioannou 9/1 e/w


Stall Analysis

8:30 Wolverhampton 29 races


5. Ioannou 17% (5)
7. True Prince 17% (5)
9. George Fenton 14% (4)
12. Piccolo Express 14% (4)

Worst Stalls

1. Star Up In The Sky 0%
11. Mishaal 0%


2:00 Sandown (only 5 qualifiers)

1. Touzr  60%
4. Birikyno 20%
7, Crystalized 20%

Not many stats on this, but if i broaden the search. And it does throw up a small but maybe significant trend. the first and last stall over this distance throws up more winners than the other stalls. There are winners in-between but it's more noticeable on the extremities. Did want to mention Birikyno who is a massive price, mainly because came last on his only start. Firstly i reviewed the race and was a bit startled when the stalls opened and was a bit slow out the gate. Stayed in touch but head carriage was as such that maybe he didn't enjoy the kick-back. There are some horses that just do not like it there. Today's conditions might not prove ideal, but he is liked by his trainer and will be better on faster ground and handicapping. However i think his price 100/1  is a bit much, you never know.


4:30 Sandown only 3 races qualified)

5. Canadian Run 33%
7. Pleasure Bent 33%
9. Take Note 33% - NR

only 3 races qualified so not much to go on, broadening the search leads to more stats. But not no particular trends, although stall 3 and 5, seems to be consistent so that brings Naaz into play. Still not enough solid trends though.


5:30 Wolves 

only 1 race under slow conditions run with this number of runners

6. Switch On

however broadening it to just standard going there were quite a few races and here are the result

9. Lucky Black Star 18% (4)
3. Tornado Battle 14% (3)
7. Annie Besent 14% (3)

Worst Stall 

10. Penang Power 0%

I like Lucky Black Star in this , and Tornado Battle so would be comfortable backing either


6:30 Wolverhampton 

5. Mistral Wind 23% (7)
3. Sunblazer 19% (6)
4. See And Be Seen 16% (5)
7. Luckster 13%  (4)

Worst Stalls

6. Uncle Bernie 6% (2)
8. Hattie Jacques 3% (1)

only 1 qualified for exact conditions and that was stall 1. Aiyana, so based this on any age over condtions, and this is what i got.


7:00 Wolverhampton (0 races qualified, based on any age with over 20 races)

1. Outback Lover 26%
7. Boston Alex 26%
3. Limegrove 21%
2. Marilyn Maquessa 11%

Worst Stalls

5. Kano's Girl 0%
6 Little Big Man 0%
8. Faye Belle 0%
9, Sing Out Sister 0%

Looks to be some advantage to being in stall 1, 7 and 3 and i would look to those 3 for the winner