Top Tips 11/9/13

Tearsofthesun

2:30 Doncaster - Expert 5/2
2:50 Carlisle - Plunder 9/1
3:00 Doncaster - Justineo 3/1-  £40
3:35 Doncaster - Callmeakhab 6/1
4:00 Carlisle - Tears Of The Sun 6/5 (nb)
4:45 Doncaster - Regal Dan 7/1 - £13.75
5:05 Carlisle - Hot Rod Mamma 7/1- £13.75
5:45 Kempton - Gabrials Gift 6/4 - £25
6:45 Kempton Whippy Cream 5/4 (nap)
8:15 Kempton - Victorian Number 8/1 - £15

Some here are stall analysis which i will put below

£100 stakes - £107.50 = £7.50 profit


Stall Analyst

2:30 Doncaster 

3, Scruffy Tramp 67%
2. Expert 33%

Although the stats show stall 3 as the best. on other stats it points more to stall 2 as being the better stall. As Expert was my original pick i am happy to go with that.

3:00 Doncaster

6. Justineo 100%

Happy coincident this, as i read early that William Buick thinks this horse is his best chance of a winner today, and he thinks he has some very solid rides today.


4:00 Carlisle

2. Updated 33%
6. Zumurudah 17%
8. Lady Bubbles 17%
10. Dynaglow 17%
11. Tears Of The Sun 17%

Another Maiden and i try to look towards the horses that have run already. Zumurudah and Tears Of The Sun are the one's i think we should concentrate on, and i was impressed by TOTS last run, so she gets the vote.

5:45 Kempton

4. Song Of Parkes 27%
8. Gabriel's Gift 27%
1. Jemimaville 18%
3. Torres Del Paine 18%
6. Colourbearer 18%

Worse Stalls

7. We Have A dream 0%
9. Danziger 0%
10. Rondeau 0%

I had Gabriels Gift before i did this so am happy with that. However looking at the stats carefully, stall 2 is very consistent at this track over this distance, so expect Frognal to go well


 5:05 Carlisle

Overall Performance of stalls over the exact distance

10. Hot Rod Mamma 30%
6. Sweetnessandlight 20%

Worst Stalls

1. Suits Me 0%
5. Dutch Rose 0%
9. King Torus 0%

i have distinguished that these stats are based on all races run over this track over the exact distance only.  If i had the exact ground into the mix it gives stall 8. Mushaakis 100%, but that is only 1 race run on good ground. If i add age into the mix, so it makes it the exact conditions as today, then there are no races that fit the criteria. However something interesting comes to light, which is that in a 9 runner and 11 runner race, there have been only 2 races run in the same conditions, and the winner has come from stall 5, which today holds Dutch Rose.

So in my opinion, there seems to be an advantage to middle to higher stalls at this distance on this track.

In summery, it has cut the field down to 4 possible's Hot Rod Mamma, Sweetnessandlight, Mushaakis and Dutch Rose. Last night i had actually cut the race down to Hot Rod Mamma, Sweetnessandlight and Dutch Rose. Hot Rod Mamma came top of the list for me as stats were good, then Sweetnessandlight then Dutch Rose. I would expect to see all 3 up there at the end.



9:15 Kempton

2, Sheikh The Reins 23% (12 wins)
3. Mick Dundee 9% (5)
12. Only Ten Per Cent 9% (5)
1. Zaheeb 8% (4)
4. South Kenter 8% (4)
10. Magical Rose 8% (4)

Worst Stalls

5. Excellent Jem 2% (1)
9. Golden Desert 2%(1)