Top Tips 10/9/13

Humidor

3:30 Redcar - Captain Scooby 10/1 e/w - £17.50
3:40 Worcester - One Term 13/8 - £26.25
4:10 Worcester - Comehomequietly 33/1 e/w
4:50 Leicester - Humidor 2/1 (nap)
5:00 Redcar - Beat The Shower 12/1 e/w - £20
5:40 Beverley - Avon Breeze 4/1
7:10 Beverley - Violent Velocity 7/1 e/w - £13.75

£70 stakes - £77.50 = £7.50 profit

Stall Analysis

4:50 Leicetser 

5. Humidor 100%

This horse was marked up on my shortlist before i did the stall analysis. So this is a very happy coincidence. In fact all trends up until 7 runners have had very good results in these conditions with the outside stall.


5:40 Beverley

1. Avon Breeze 100% 

I had this race between Bondi Beach Boy and Avon Breeze. Beverley looks to favour the lower stall numbers, so you have to consider Singuer, Mister Mannannan and Bondi Beach Boy, but under these conditions all the wins have come from stall 1 to date so Avon Breeze looks to have the advantage.


7:10 Beverley - 

5. Violent Velocity 100%

Another stall with 100% strike rate, was a horse also already on my short list so gives me hope. Races with different runners in the same conditions also favour this stall, but also the stalls either side, so that would bring in the likes of 4. Thrust Control and 6. Moral Issue into it. I would feel confident that one of these 3 or all of them go well here


5:05 Beverley

Best Stall

3. Lucky North 27%

NB

2. My History 18%
5. El Cordobes 18%

Worse Stalls

1. Bad medicine 0%
4. Response 0%
7. Hurry Home Poppa 0%
9. Cottam Maybel 0%

Bit more stats to get our teeth stuck into here. For me personally in a Maiden i like a horse with previous racecourse experience.  Most horses improve from their first run, unless you run into something good. Lucky North although it holds the best stall might need the run. El Cordobes might also need the run however was quite a expensive purchase being by Montjeu out of a Rock Of Gibraltar mare. So you have to take notice, but the horse i will go with is My History who ran a very creditable 2nd last week, losing by a short head, will come on and the stable are in form.


6:10 Beverley

2. Gouray Girl  100%

100% strike rate is good, however there is no clear pattern around this 8 runner race to suggest stall2 is the best stall. Just so happens it is in a 8 runner race. In a 7 runner race Stall3 has 100% strike rate and stall 3 holds Dubai Dynamo, so it could suggest lower numbers in anything less than a 8 runner race may have an advantage. On this it looks like Gouray Girl is the one to beat though and she is about 10/1 now so could be e/w value