Top Tips 8/8/13

Sound Amigo

8:00 Chepstow - Cape Crossing 11/2 e/w (nap)

Being a bit careful and putting e/w, but i cannot see any reason why she cannot win this. I admit to liking Tooley Woods to start with, stats over course are 1, 3, 2. And only every beaten by the smallest of margins. So Obviously Tooley Woods will be the danger. However in her last race Cape Crossing ran and can 3rd to her 2nd. What turned me to Cape Crossing is that she had been off the track since January, so this was her first run since then. She was 2 1/4L behind the 1st and 2nd that day. Tooley Woods was put up 2lb in the handicap, plus is carrying 8lb more in the weight than that day. Where as Cape crossing has gone down 2lb in the handicap and is only carrying an extra 4lb in the weights, so if my calculations are correct Cape Crossing is effectively 8lb better off today. The added bonus to Cape Crossing, is not only will she come on from that run, but she has the in form Richard Hughes on board. I cannot see her out of the top 2 in this.


7:50 Sandown - Regal Hawk 2/1 - £30

She doesn't want to get her head in front too soon, as she only ever does enough to win. Very lightly raced and treated with care by trainer James Tate.Only up 3lb for last win and looks to be the one they all need to beat.

2:30 Yarmouth - Strategical 8/13 - £16.15

Godolphin are flying as the moment, and Strategical was beaten by a horse with racecourse experience last time out, and who holds some promise. Assuming he has come on from that, he should be hard to beat

4:10 Haydock - Sound Amigo 16/1

Have gone through quite a few stats for this horse, and at 16/1 he is certainly worth an e/w bet. Only one Course and Distance run and he came 3rd by 1/4L, he is 5lb lower in the handicap than that day, and only carrying 1lb more in the weights, so he has a great chance based on just that. That day he was also in stall 7, today he is in stall 6.

Moving on, stats on good ground are 1, 3, 2. the 1st and 3rds were at this track. He has raced 8 times over 6f and been in the top 3 5 of those times. and i think i will discount 2 times being out the top 3 because they were at Southwell, and one was on slow a/w, but Southwell might not suit him.

So all in all i think he could have a cracking chance at placing or possibly winning.

£40 stakes - £46.15 reutrns = £6.15 profit

System Tips 

4:30 Yarmouth - Inherited 11/4
6:00 Southwell - Bewitchment 7/4
7:15 Sandown - Tajheez 10/3



System Pick

4:10 Haydock
System Pick				Speed Picks
1st Decision By One	30			1st Lexi's Hero	55
1st Bop It	30			2nd Sound Amigo	20
1st Fairway To Heaven	30			2nd Decision By One	20
1st Trade Secret	30			3rd Pea Shooter	15
2nd Sound Amigo	25			4th Diman Waters	10
3rd Pea Shooter	20
Final Picks Including Speed
1st Lexi's Hero  14/1	55
2nd Decision By One 20/1	50
3rd Sound Amigo 16/1	45
4th Bop It 7/2	35

Fairway To Heaven stood out on the main stats and Lexi's Hero really stood out on the speed stats. My Top Tip Sound Amigo is very consistent which is great, as a place is looking good for him. I think the Final Picks are fair although Fairway To Heaven is sure to improve. But might just need the run