Top Tips 2/8/13

Haafaguinea

3:05 Goodwood - Haafaguinea 14/1

I think this boy is the forgotten horse in this race. He has had some problems, including an operation to remove a chip from his knee. So he is still improving. After a long layoff he came back to win the Esher Cup beating Market Town, he was supposed to go to Royal Ascot but another problem meant he bypassed the race. He was only a reserve here, but 2 horses dropped out to let him and St Moritz in. He will want the ground to stay Good, anything firmer will not be in his favour. Clive Cox holds this horse in high regard. The stall draw is not brilliant but Clive Cox said "It's not impossible to win from there" In the end he might get further, but for now 1m is perfect. Haafaguinea is unexposed and could be open to much more improvement, he is a battler, and is not the type of horse to give up. I expect to see him run a big race off bottom weight of 8st 9lb. Cape Peron in this looks the likely winner, but don't rule out Haafaguinea

3:15 Bangor - One Term 8/11 - £17.27

I am not going to say too much on this horse except McCoy is going there to ride just this one horse. And in my experience he normally wins those.

5:10 Thirsk - Iptisam 4/1

I told you about him Wednesday, his trainer said he has overcome injury problems and will be hard to beat next time out - which is today

5:40 Galway - Snakes And Ladders 4/1

Connections think he is a couple of steps ahead of the handicapper, and will enjoy not only Galway track but wants soft ground, which he gets.

7:55 Galway - Murchu 14/1 e/w - £22.50

He wasn't high enough in the weights to get into the Plate, so the is running here instead, connections are hopeful he will run a big race. Won at this track last year


System Tips

4:50 Goodwood - Shuruq 10/1 e/w
5:00 Bangor - Crazy 11/4
6:35 Bath - Alzavola 8/13
6:55 Newmarket - Shifting Power 4/1 - £50

£90 stakes - £89.77 returns = -£0.23 loss

3:40 Goodwood

1st Duke of Firenze 18/1 -40
2nd Kingsgate Native 12/1 - 35
2nd Borderlescott 33/1 - 35
3rd Tickled Pink 6/1 - 30
3rd Jwala 26/1 - 30


7:50 Musselburgh

1st Red Baron 5/1 - 50
1st Moorhouse Lad 20/1 - 50
2nd Avon breeze 4/1 - 45
3rd Mayoman 6/1 - 30

Red Baron is the horse for me in the race, however Moorhouse Lad really stood out in the stats, and i mean he came top on all of them he qualified for. His form is up and down, but his last win was 2 years ago at this track over the same distance, with the same ground conditions. According to me stats he is rated about 9 seconds higher than the next horse, which is Noodles Blue Boy. And Captain Dunne is the fastest on this ground type, but Moorhouse lad is 2nd. If he can recapture his form of 2 years ago when here. He could be up there. The other 3 on the list is what i had shortlisted the race down too, with possibly Jesward who wears a visor for the first time.