Top Tips 30/7/13

Anticiapted

2:30 Goodwood - Anticipated 4/1

Faces Supplicant again, where Supplicant beat him by a short head into 2nd at Royal Ascot. Although Supplicant comes here fresh, Anticipated went to France for a Group 2, and although well beaten into 5th, it looked like the 1/2f extra was just a bit hard work, so the drop down 5f, will suit him again. He had Ambiance behind him that day and i cannot see that form reversed. Rain is forecast as well and he won't mind that at all.

4:50 Goodwood - Democrates 10/1 e/w - £17.50

1m could be exactly what he needs. Badly hampered last time out, but was running on at the end. He has been so consistent otherwise and 10/1 looks a solid e/w bet

3:15 Yarmouth - Signor Sassi 9/4 

Wore a Hood for the fast time in her last race over C&D, should improve again. Had a few of these well beaten behind at the time too


5:40 Galway - Hidden Cyclone 3/1

Hidden Cyclone is a horse i follow, but recently he has bee hopelessly out of form, but if you look at his form 1/4L beaten by First Lieutenant and has been beaten 1 1/4L by Sir Des Champs. The last 3 races though have seen him in a poor light. One of those runs was a Grade 1, and maybe he is just not a Grade 1 horse. He fell last time out when very tired. The reason i am going with him is because he is 1/1 on this ground, Unbeaten going right handed, and he loves an undulating track like Galway, where he is 4/4. I am putting his recent lack of form down to a hard season. He has had a very nice break, and goes very well fresh, If he recaptures his form and his fall hasn't upset him. He is better than the rest here, Woolcombe Folly is a danger, all the way from Devon with Ruby on board. And obviously Ratlin is a danger, but out of 3 runs on this surface he has placed twice, he has only won 4 out of 15 on a very undulating track.



System Tips

2:50 Beverley - Ocean Storm 8/11 - £17.27
8:20 Worcester - Benefit Of Youth 10/11 - £19.09


£60 Stake - £53.86 returns = £6.14 loss



System Picks

5:40 Galway 

1st Hidden Cyclone 3/1 - 40
2nd Woolcombe Folly 7/4 - 25
3rd  Rathlin 15/8 - 20
3rd Canaly 12/1 - 20

Reason for liking Hidden Cyclone above. I would pretty much agree with this order. Although Canalys stats are interesting and he might spring a little surprise, but as far as i am concerned, this race is all about the market leaders

3:05 Goodwood

1st Producer 9/2 - 60
2nd Monsieur Chevalier 100/1 - 50
2nd Aljamaaheer 3/1 - 50
3rd Casper Netscher 12/1 - 45
3rd Libranno 12/1 - 45
4th Krypton Factor 14/1 - 35
5th Fencing 7/1 - 30

Garswood is my choice. But based on stats Producer really stands out, and coming top shows that too. You will notice Monsieur Chevalier 100/1 joint 2nd, the reason being is his speed figures over surface and distance puts him consistently in the top 3. The other 2 that were consistent in their speed figures were Producer and Casper Netscher.

2:30 Goodwood

1st Anticipated 7/2 - 55
2nd Ambiance 7/1 - 50
3rd Supplicant 3/1 - 40
4th Sleeper King 12/1 - 30
5th Reroute 5/1 - 20

Supplicant stood out on this, but Anticipated i think will reverse the form of Royal Ascot, Reroute is a bit of an unknown