Top Tips 16/7/13

3:00 Beverley - Nashville 3/1 (nap)
3:45 Bath - Croquembouche 6/4
5:00 Beverley - Hernando Torres 9/2
6:00 Kempton - About Turn 9/4 - £32.50
6:30 Kempton - Hoonose 11/2
7:40 Killarney - Rebel Fitz 10/11 - £19.09

£60 stakes - £51.59 = - £8.41 loss

Todays Nap

3:00 Beverley - Nashville 3/1

Tricky race this and possibly a tricky race to pick the winner, but Nashville stood out for me. Firstly his last race is very interesting. Out of that race 4 horses who have since run, 2 of them stepped up in class and although didn't win, ran well in defeat. and the 2 others who have ran, both won, one of which was Tartan Jura, who is also fancied in this race today. Both of those winners came well behind Nashville.

On that day Nashville beat TJ by about 25L, and since that run TJ is 4lb higher in the handicap, and carrying an extra 10lb in weight, where as Nashville is on the same handicap mark as that day, and carrying 10lb more in the weights. So effectively TJ shoulder 7lb more than the last time they met.

Of the other horses Body Language is out of form, carrying the highest weight she has had to carry  and is 5lb higher in the handicap since last win. Also unproven on this surface as both wins have come on good. Platinum might be in the handicappers grip, won nicely over 1m 6f but got turned over by the horse he beat into 2nd. That horse beat him by 10L last time, after Platinum was put up by 6lb by the handicapper. He is still 6lb higher, and it would take a nice horse further down the weights like Nashville who is carrying 10lb less than Platinum.

Mojolika is 7lb higher since last winning run on the flat, and since that win has done nothing on the flat, however his form over hurdles has been good. Would be a danger, but as no impression on the flat after a couple of wins over hurdles, i would cross him out, but he cannot be ignored

Up Ten Down Two, does have me scratching my head a little, seems out of sorts, and might need some rain, but if suddenly recaptures form then might have a chance.