Qipco 1000 & 2000 Guineas - My thoughts

Hot Snap and What A Name

At some point last year i backed Dawn Approach for the 2000 Guineas at 7/2 and also for The Derby at 8/1. At that point, i couldn't see any horse getting close to him. I even wondered if he could be another Frankel. Today i still think he is special, but now i am nervous. I am nervous for 2 reasons, one being that he hasn't had a run so far this year, not that in this race it matters, i mean look at Camelot last year. But the other reason comes in the form of Toronado. Toronado was originally seen as a Derby horse, but his run in the Craven was impressive, he comes into the race race fit, and Richard Hughes has said he will win the 200 Guineas. That makes me nervous.

But also there are some very lively outsiders in the race. Garswood is one. There has been speculation to if he will see out the 1m, but Richard Fahey is another trainer that is very bullish this horse, and thinks that he does have a chance.

There are 3 Aiden O'Brien horses. Cristoforo Columbo i have ignored, possibly at my peril, but the reason i have ignored him, is i just do not like the jockey. I think Joseph O'Brien does show some brilliance in his riding, but not too often, and too many times already this season, i have seen him throw races away. But off the O'Brien horse, i would be worried about George Vancouver who won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile at the end of last year. And he has only been 3 1/2L behind Dawn Approach before. O'Briens other horse Mars is completely unknown, but he could surprise everyone.

Van Der Neer and Moohaajim also have claims and between all of these, i think the Qipco 2000 Guineas this year could be the most competitive in recent years.

Looking on at the 1000 Guineas, there is one big gap here which is the absence of Certify. Who knows now if she deserved her place in the line up, but we will never know. Hot Snap is favourite for this since winning the Nell Gwyn a couple of weeks ago. My heart says i would love this little filly to win. I do worship Sir Henry Cecil and i do love watching his horses win. However, my head tells me the horse to beat will be the French raider What A Name. I do think she will be hard to beat, but there are some very good fillies in the way.

Aiden O'Briens Moth has a chance, but once again Joseph O'Brien gives me the heebee jeebee's. Just The Judge is  unbeaten and Charlie Hills is in great form, and she is really a filly that has a great chance. Agent Allison is the horse that interests me as the outsider. Connections like her a lot, and she got badly bumped in the Dubai Duty Free last time out, and was out at the back, but made great headway under pressure just couldn't catch Maureen. I wouldn't be shocked to see that form reversed.

Another outsider i like is Roz, and she could be there at the end.

But after going through these 2 races several times in the last few days i have come out with my top 3

2000 Guineas

1st Dawn Appraoch 7/4
2nd Toronado 2/1
3rd George Vancouver 14/1


1000 Guineas 

1st What A Name 5/1
2nd Hot Snap 11/4
3rd Agent Allison 25/1