Top Tips 22/4/13

Admirable Duque is once again my Nap

2:30 Hexham - Sleep In First 2/1   - £30
3:20 Kempton - Mushaakis 2/1          
4:50 Kempton - Shirataki 3/1              
5:55 Kempton - West Leake 4/1     
7:20 Wolverhampton - Admirable Duque 12/1 e/w (nap)
7:50 Wolverhampton - Dhhamaan 16/1 e/w
8:50 Wolverhampton - Qeethaara 2/1

System Pick

4:20 Kempton - Bright Strike 3/1 - £40


£80 stake - £70 returns = -£10 loss

Todays Nap

 7:20 Wolverhampton - Admirable Duque 12/1 e/w 

Admirable Duque has been my nap before at a very nice price and won duly for me. Well he is back with conditions to suit at a nice price. As i told you last time his stats over C&D are 1*, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1 (* higher class) the 3rd i said to ignore as beaten in a claimer beaten by La Estrella. The most he has carried over C&D to victory is 9st 4lb, today he carries 8st 13lb, his highest handicap rating to victory is 77, today he is rated 74. He loves this course and this distance. Ignore his last run at Lingfield as he is patchy at best when running there, here he is consistant and i think he can continue that, and he will not be 12/1 tomorrow.

Of his opponents, he was beaten by Wordiness last time out, i have already said his form at Lingfield is patchy at best, however he was beaten 5L by Wordiness. Wordiness goes up 2lb for that win while AD drops 1lb in the handicap. And in the weights Wordiness is now carrying 5lb more than he did that day while AD is carrying 4lb more. Wordiness' stats at Wolves are 3, 4, 1, 1 but the 2 wins have come over 1m 4f, so not only is he coming here at a bigger disadvantage, and on AD's favourite track, he is is now facing him over his best distance. I can easily see AD reversing the form. They have met before that as well but that was on turf and Wordiness came 11th while AD came 12th

Porgy has raced AD twice, and been beaten twice. Last time they met Porgy was carrying a massive 17lb more in weight plus 17lb higher in the handicap. Today he is only carrying 10lb more in weight and is only 10lb higher in the handicap. and that day AD only beat Porgy by 3/4L. And although Porgy meets AD on much better terms, that day AD missed the break and was slowly into his stride and he ran on nicely, he has met Porgy on much closer terms when there was only 5lb in the weights and 5lb in the Handicap and he beat him over 5L that day.

The only danger i see is Red Orator who is open to improvement, he is only 4, and stats on A/W are 1, 4, 7. The win came over 1m 3f though and although he has won over todays distance he is now up 8lb in the handicap and that day he won he carried 8st 4lb. Today he carries 9st 8lb

Here are some Head to Heads in the race

 Outcome

27 days ago Wordiness Beat Admirable Duque (IRE)

44 days ago Admirable Duque (IRE) Beat Porgy

283 days ago Wordiness Beat Admirable Duque (IRE)

583 days ago Cosimo De Medici Beat Eshtyaaq

654 days ago Eshtyaaq Beat Admirable Duque (IRE)

772 days ago Admirable Duque (IRE) Beat Porgy










Bright Strike is the pick from the system - Good Luck everybody





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