Top Tips 19/4/13

Cap O'Rushes todays Nap

2:30 Newbury - Cap O'Rushes 3/1 (nap)
3:15 Ayr - Rebel Rebellion 5/2
3:25 Fontwell - Peut Etra Sivola 7/2
6:50 Southwell - Bocamix 14/1 e/w




5:10 Wexford - Fantastic Strike 20/1 - £30
6:10 Wexford - Whiskey And Red 16/1

£60 stake - £30 return = -£30 loss

Todays Nap

 2:30 Newbury - Cap O'Rushes 3/1

This is a horse i liked from last year. In his last race i thought the step up in distance to 1m 2f would suit well, and it did, but that day he didn't seem to go as well on the soft ground, although only got beaten by 1/2L. Today it will be drier and i think that will suit very well. His 6th place can be ignored as he was short for room when he did get out, he just couldn't catch the leaders.

Big positives on this horse. First it is Trainer and Jockeys only runner/ride tomorrow, and we all know how that worked for this combo a couple of days ago with Improvisation. 2nd - the stable is in cracking form, 3rd connections hold this horse in "very high esteem". All positives. Contribution is the main danger but he has a bit to find on form. Incorperate is proven over distance, but the other 2 are much better than opposition that day Mocenigo is another danger, but not sure about the distance, and Cruck Realta hasn't been seen since July and might need the run.


Of my other picks Rebel Rebellion  looks to have a great chance. Disappointing at Aintree, not sure why he has been sent by Paul Nicholls in the leafy countryside of Devon all the way up to Ayr, it's his only runner and it's Ruby Walsh's only ride. If i look back at his last win, it was class 3, carrying 11st 7lb handicap 140 over distance on heavy ground. Today it's heavy ground, class 3, carrying 11st 5lb and handicap is 140. He won that day by 14L The 2nd in that went onto win a Class 2 race. All 3 rivals have chances, Eastlake is the most obvious, 3lb up for his last run, where he won on soft ground. He has won on Heavy over todays distance in a higher class, but that day he carried 10st 8lb and was rated 10lb lower in the handicap. He did win by 6L that day, today though he carries 11st and 135.

Bocamix has not been going too well of late, but the switch back to hurdles at a course he seems to go well at might revive him a bit. His C&D over hurdles looks like this 1, 1, 3, 3. His last run here over C&D it was class 4, 11st and rated 110 on good ground. Today he carries 11st 6lb rated 107 and it's a class 4 race. The favourite Makari looks very good, but i think Bocamiz could sneak in the places.

Peut Etra Sivola C&D stats are 2, 1*, 1*, 3 (*higher class) plus a 3rd over shorter. David Pipe had him until March this year, before then PES was off for well over a year, when coming back to the track and was pulled up, after he was sold, he was sent here to Fontwell over 1f less than today and, just lost out on 2nd in the last 75 yards. Greta debut for his new yard. He comes back fully race fit and has every chance to take this race.

Of the 2 Irish runners. Whiskey and Red is a horse i follow. I got it wrong last time when i told everybody he needed a right handed track, he did need a right handed track, but i forgot he needs 3miles to be effective and it was 2m 5f. He prefers heavy ground. He ran a awful race, and before that it had been a couple of runs left handed which went badly. This extra distance back to his normal a right handed track, and his drop down in the handicap can all contribute. It's soft not heavy, but it might rain and i think soft will be ok. Might be worth a look if a nice big price

and my last Irish pick is as risky as any i have picked but he was flagged up because of his last run. Fantastic Strike makes his handicap debut here, and before that has shown nothing at all. But if you look into his last race, he came last of 18 runners. That day he carried top weight of 11st 12lb, today 11st 2lb. Looking at his last race he was 18th, 17th has since gone on to win a race and 3rd on h/c debut rated 110 (FS is rated 85). 16th, 6th, 7th, 4th and 2nd have all gone onto win their next races, and half haven't run yet. So if all of those have gone onto win, then FS could have a good chance, or at least place claims. It is risky because he hasn't shown the form and he might need it a little drier, but with Whiskey and Red if he is a big enough price a small e/w looks interesting.