Tips for 7/4/13
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| Leac An Scail is todays Nap |
3:10 Hexham - Leac An Scail 11/2 (bet365)
Oldest horse in the race, but he likes it here. stats over course is UR, 2, 3, 1**, 1, 1 (** 2 classes better)
Over C&D it is 1. His only run over hurdles at Hexham and he won it by 26L on heavy. The rest of the runs were over fences. He is 15lb higher in the handicap now but he has won off a rating of 118 over fences here. His rider Samantha Drake claims 7lb and she has ridden him to 2 of his 3 victories here (he has won 5).
This drying ground should help his chances too. My worries are Chovoy, One For Harry and War On. All i think are proven over soft - heavy and are unknowns on this drier ground, where as Leac An Scail goes on most ground. If Leac An Scail drifts then i recommend e/w but at this price it will be for a win, i do recommend small stakes, as this is risky Sunday racing, and normally i stay away.
My next choice is
3:20 Curragh - Yellow Rosebud SP
Is a really classy filly, and over distance is 1, 2, 2, 2, 1. Beat Lady Wingshot last time out, but Lady Winsgshot has beaten her twice before, but looking at the stats the last time out they were the closes in the handicap and weights that they had been on the last 2 occasions, and is still very close desipte Lady Wingshots 2lb drop in the handicap. I feel that Yellow Rosebud will benefit from the run. Lady Wingshot to, but i think the result can not be overturned. One unknown is Nephrite, who has been off the track for a year, and i am hoping will need the run.
Last Choice is
3:25 Ascot - Travis County 8/1 e/w (bet365)
Impressed me so much last time he ran, that i took note. He jumped quite markedly right all the way, especially at the end, and in my opinion could of won otherwise, i wrote that next time he could win if going right handed. I think this better ground, combined with a right handed track (his only win came right handed) he should go very well
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