Tips for 15/4/13

Burnham

2:50 Windsor - Woolfall Sovereign 9/1 e/w (treble)
3:50 Windsor - Rees Rascal 10/1 e/w - £17.50
4:40 Redcar - Studfarmer 6/4
4:50 Windsor - Choral Festival 14/1 e/w (nb)
 5:00 Newcastle - Severiano 5/2
5:20 Winsdor - Burnham 10/3 (nap)

£60 stake = £17.50 returns = -£.50 loss

Todays Nap

5:20 Winsdor - Burnham 10/3

This is a horse i followed last summer, my notes simply says, needs soft ground between 10f - 12f, much better if gelded???

So the good news is, he was gelded sometime over the winter, he runs on soft and he gets the distance. I think you can ignore his last run in a higher class last time out, he just didn't get the distance. He won here last year over slightly shorter and it looks good for him to take this race. With Richard Hughes in the saddle i feel quite confident of a win today.

I would like to go through some of my other choices today, as i think all my choices have cracking chances today and Burnham scraped it as he is a horse i follow and like a lot.

4:50 Windsor - Choral Festival 14/1

Choral Festival loves it at Winsdor. His stats here are 3, 3, 2, 1, 5, 3, 3, 4, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 4**, 2*, 3, 3*, 2*, 2, 2, 3* (represent higher classes), and over C&D it condenses to 2, 1, 5, 2, 1, 2*, 2, 3* so the percentage of him placing at these long odds, are pretty good in my book. His last run in a higher grade on heavy, and this ease in the ground could bring out an improvement. Ideally i think he would prefer firm ground, but it seems no type of ground stops this horse at Windsor, the heavy in October he was only 3/4 of a length away. My only worry is how he goes fresh, but he has won from having a year off before, and although that was a few years ago, i hope that he repeats it.


 2:50 Windsor -Woolfall Sovereign 9/1 e/w

This horse has been flying on the A/W over the winter, what highlighted him in the first place, was the fact that he is Tom Queally's only ride tomorrow and WS's normal jockey is booked on another horse in the race. Todays race is a Class 4, but WS has been running very well on the A/W in class 2 and 3. In fact his stats for 5f are 1**, 1*, 1*, 1**, 8***(* represents steps up in class) his last run i think we can ignore, it could of been a step too far in a Class 1 race. He reached a handicap mark of 99, today he runs off a mark of 76.  Now i know he is unproven on turf, his record has to put him up there with a shot, and at 9/1 i think why not. He is also carrying bottom weight of 8st 12lb, as he has won carrying 9st 7lb on a handicap of 93, i would like to think he has this for the taking.

Now his opposition is nothing to write home about, apart from My Son Max, who is another that has been running ok on the A/W. He reached a Handicap mark of 84 and his stats over 5f are 1, 3, 4, 2, 1 all Class 4. He is also unproven on turf really, and today he has been given a handicap mark of 82. So he will be dangerous, however if WS takes to turf then he is head and shoulders above the rest. We just have to hope he does take to it.