Tips for 11/4/13

Greek Island is a tentative NAP today

2:40 Ludlow - Mickie 2/5 -£14
3:10 Ludlow - Hoback Junction 28/1
3:50 Fontwell - Goochypoochyprader 3/1 - £40
4:40 Ludlow - What Of It 9/1 - £16.25
5:30 Kempton - Greek Islands 4/1 (nap)

£50 stakes - £70.25 returns = £20.25 profit

Todays Nap

5:30 Kempton - Greek Island 4/1 (nap)

Todays nap is not as strong as normal for me, but he caught my eye straight away and i feel strongly enough to have him as my nap. There are a couple of reasons he caught my eye. Firstly i have been following a couple of runners from his last race, as it is turning out to be a hot affair.

Greek Islands came 4th in that race. Finding no room about a furlong out or so, he managed to get clear and make some headway, but not being able to catch the leaders. But finishing over 1L behind him that day has been Teen Ager who has notched up 2 wins out of 2 runs since that race. 6th and 7th placed horses have both been 2nd since, Indian Violet came 2nd only today. The horse that came in front of him by a head has also notched up a win since. So they are franking his form nicely.

His stats over todays course is 2, 12, 7, 1, 2.  The 7th was out of 7 and over 6f, which i think is too short for him. The 12th place i have no explanation for apart from he was coming from stall 9. I do think 1m is probably more his distance, he is by Oasis Dream and i think most his offspring go well over a mile.

So with his solid 4th over 8f last time out and the fact he goes ok at this track. I think he is the horse to beat. I am worried he has the widest stall but i think he can overcome that. Deal Me In is a danger on his handicap debut, but i feel he will improve on his last run, and on that alone he is the horse to beat here.

Of the others Goochypoochyprader would of been my nap, as i have been following her and i think on this ground she can get her head in front again, my only worry is here very inexperienced jockey, and that is the reason she is not my nap.

And lastly, you would of noticed my choice of Hoback Junction at 28/1. Risky? yes, why did i pick him? easy, i think he has been overlooked. Sublime Talent is the one to beat in this, but this fellas stats over distance is 2, 2, 1, 3. He has been running over further lately and although he showed nothing in a claimer last time out, my view is that it was too far. I do believe it's foolish not to pay him any attention back down in distance, and i am not sure heavy ground is what he has enjoyed, so given him better ground could suit too.

His last win came 3 years ago, and his best form since then was a 3rd over 2miles when only 5l aways, he hit the last hard and although he wasn't going to catch 1st and 2nd he might of come a bit closer. He has shown some form on good by coming 3rd to Mossely over further. I cannot say he will win, but i am saying he is lightly raced and this could be his time. He is 12lb better off in the handicap since his last win, and he is 6lb less than his 3rd over the distance.