Tip for 2/4/13

Homeward Strut is my nap



No daily tips tomorrow as i am working on the Grand National for the Club.

However i do have 1 tip, and i guess that makes it my NAP. I really like his chances, but he is risky. I’ll explain why.
5:00 Kempton – Homeward Strut  14/1 e/w
Record over 6f is 2, 3**, 2*, 11* (** is class 4,*class 5 – without * is same class today  6)
Record at Kempton is 2, 5. The 5th was last time out, and the 2nd he was beaten a neck by Fast Finian, who has since gone on to race in Class 4 races, and is doing well.
Although both his wins have been over 7f, his record is good at 6f. The 11th place is something i think we can ignore as he had been off the track for 6months and obviously needed the run. His last race, he was 5th here over 7f in a higher class, beaten 6 and a quarter lengths. Now i have watched the race, and he was prominent over 5f and got squeezed just as they reached 1f out, but after he hit that 1f marker, he just went back, looked like it was just too far.
In that race though, the first placed horse has since gone on to 2 close 2nds, the 2nd horse has gone onto 1 close 2nd, the 4th placed horse actually went on to beat Evens favourite Chrissycross next time out and the horse that came just behind Homeward Strut, was dropped in class to 6 and went onto win nicely. So they have franked his form, and i think he still might of needed the run to get back to full race fitness.
My only worry is that he is carrying a lot more weight that when he was 2nd over C&D in June, but he has carried 1lb less than this and 1lb less in the handicap when a extremely close 2nd at Wolves in a higher class. So i think he does come with every chance today.

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