The Novice Tipster - Grand National Preview 2013
The Grand National Preview.
1. Imperial Commander – Top weight and
former Gold Cup winner, had been off the track for 2 years because of injury,
but came back in impressive style when a gallant 2nd to Cape
Tribulation in the Grade 2 Argento Chase, he was favourite for the Gold Cup
when a bug hit the yard and he got a lung infection. So he has come here
without another run, but this horse has a lot of class and cannot be dismissed.
Sam Twiston- Davies takes the ride for the first time, and he wouldn’t want the
ground too soft. The odds look a little stacked against him, but his class
alone could get him round, and he could be the first horse to do win the Gold
Cup and the National since L’Escargot in the 70’s. ****
2. What A Friend
– I have to admit to not fancying his chances. He has been over the fences 3
times now. He won The Silver Bowl 3 years ago and the fell at the 2nd
in 2011, he then came back to the Silver Bowl and came 7th. It’s not
the stables 1st string either. The plus side is that the ground
should suit. But I think he probably will get round but in his own time, and
this is probably more of a day out for his owners which include Sir Alex
Ferguson. ***
3. Weird Al –
Weird Al is a difficult horse to predict these days, and I had fancied him as an
e/w chance last year, but he was badly hampered at Bechers on the 2nd
circuit then ended up falling 4 out. Since then his racing has been patchy at
best, and although he is capable on his day, I’m not sure this will be it. He
will however like the ground and could get round if keeping out of trouble, but
like What A Friend, I can see him doing it in his own time. ***
4. Quel Esprit –
Showed plenty of ability over hurdles and his chasing career didn’t start off
too well, but he improved enough to win the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown, since
then has failed to shine, and I am a little concerned as to how well he will do
over these fences, he isn’t Mullins 1st
string in this. I think he might like it softer. **
5. Big Fella Thanks
– This horse gets round this course, and that’s all that matters, 6, 4, 7 are
his stats over C&D, he missed last year’s race, but came back in December and
recorded a nice 3rd in the Bechers Chase. In my opinion he is
probably in the best form of his life, however my concern is that he is
carrying 5lb more than he ever has, he is now 11 years old, and he always runs
out of petrol and doesn’t quite stay the marathon distance. So a horse with
that little bit more will get past him. However I wouldn’t rule him out as an
each way at 40/1, although wouldn’t want the ground too soft he will go much
better on Good or Good to Soft. ***
6. Seabass – He
was a unknown to me last year as had never gone further than 3miles, but he
proved he could do it and he did it so well too, in fact I thought he would win
it at one point, he was a very
impressive 3rd. 8lb up on last year which is a worry especially as
he emptied on the run in, but he has been running very well this season and is
in good heart. I think he won’t mind soft ground, and all in all cannot be
ruled out, and could be very well be up there at the end. But in my opinion, I
think his best chance was last year, and this will be tougher. *****
7. Roberto Goldback
– Trainer Nicky Henderson hasn’t won the National yet, and although he has some
amazing horses in his yard, I think this race will elude him once more. Roberto
Goldback in my opinion does not stay further than 3m. In fact all his races
over 3 miles has resulted in either the jockey being thrown out the back door
or him coming at the back of the field. So although he could get round, I
cannot guarantee he will be back by the time next year’s National starts. ****
8. Sunnyhillboy –
Lovely horse is Sunnyhillboy, he was 2nd by a nose to Neptune
Collonges last year, and as writing this it was unknown but AP McCoy has a
choice of riding this fella or Colbert Station, and he is having a tough time
deciding. Sunnyhillboy has the experience which is very important here, and
counts for a lot. My only worry with him is he carried 10st 5lb last year, this
year he is carrying 11st 4lb, so if my theory carries on from Seabass, last
year would have been his best chance at winning this. Think he will enjoy Good
or Good to Soft ground. ****
9. Ballabriggs –
winner of the 2011 running, and 6th last year. This year his is 4lb
higher in the weights than when he won and 5lb LESS than last year when he was
6th. He is 12 now though which is a worry, however last year he
managed 6th, and only had 1 prep run before hand, which was less
than ideal, but this year he had a nice spin over hurdles and then won a 3 mile
chase. He is certainly race fit now, and he adores these marathons. This horse
could very much win or come close to winning his 2nd National. Last
year he blundered at the Canal Turn on the 2nd circuit and lost
ground, but he made headway and was gaining on the leaders, just couldn’t catch
them. And those who know me know I stay well away from previous winners, but
this year, I will be backing him. *****
10. Teaforthree –
2nd in this year’s Welsh National on heavy ground, and what a finish
it was. Great preparation for this race, and he likes a good stamina test.
Seems to go on most ground, and the better ground might be an advantage. He is
certainly a horse with a chance here. Only
disadvantage in my book would that this is his first time over these fences,
but he is a good, sound jumper. ****
11. Across The Bay
– 2nd string of Donald McCain (Ballabriggs his 1st), he
is lightly raced over fences and was 7th in this year’s Welsh
National, there was excuses but the ground was bottomless anyway and tough
going on all runners. The better ground might help here, but he does go well on
heavy ground. It’s my thought that he could be a national horse, and I can see
him going well, but I do not think he is in Ballabriggs league just yet, maybe
next year? He couldn’t have a better
trainer than Donald McCain.****
12. Join Together
– Paul Nicholls reckons this horse is his best chance of winning this race this
year. He won last year with Neptune Collonges, and this horse has been aimed at
this race. Close 2nd in the
Bechers Chase in December, he was on track and going well in the Grimthorpe
Chase at the beginning of March, until he was very badly hampered and dropped
to the back and his race was over, he did plug on but with well over half the
race to run, he just wasn’t going to reel them back in without using up a lot
of energy. So was allowed to jump round at the back and was pulled up at the 15th.
Ground will be ideal, and he goes over these fences. Could have a chance. ****
13. Colbert Station
– Stamina would be a question mark for me, as hasn’t run over 3 miles, but Ted
Walsh I think is quite sweet on this horse’s chances, and these doubts were
exactly the same as I had last year with Seabass and look where he ended up
last year, also he has won 3 miles on heavy and so seems to enjoy a good test
of stamina. I think he would probably prefer soft ground. Step up in class but
could be there at the end, if taking to these fences. ****
14.
Forpadydeplasterer – Great little servant over the years for connections,
but possibly not in the form he was 2 years ago. And only ever won once at 3
miles, I have big doubts about his stamina,
but he is however a solid jumper and could get round, which is half the
battle here. ****
15. On His Own -
Favourite for this. Fell at Bechers on the 2nd circuit last year,
but I thought he was going ok beforehand. In my book a fall on this course is a
black mark though. He has won 5 out of his 11 races though and is a good horse.
Certainly entitles to be favourite for
this as his form has been excellent. Does tick a lot of the boxes. But for me
he has gone twice over 3 miles and his record is PU, F. And I will not back
him, although I can certainly see why others have. *****
16. Joncol –
Pretty consistent type and was 3rd to Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs
last time out in the Hennessy Gold Cup, he hasn’t faced these fences before but
his jumping is good, and he will love it if it’s soft ground. He is a horse I
cannot rule out, is well handicapped, and could go well. He hasn’t raced in a
field anywhere near as large as this though, his last race there were just 4 of
them. ***
17. Balthazar King
– This boy has a chance, I would say a very good chance the drier the ground,
but Good – Soft t will do. My only worry is he hasn’t run since November, but
he does go well fresh. He revels in a good stamina test and although he hasn’t
been to this course before, he is an
expert over the cross country courses which include a variety of fences including a national fence. Won at 3m
7f and is consistent at these marathon trips. He is on my short list. ***
18. Cappa Bleu –
The Grand National has been this boy’s aim all season, and he comes here in
cracking form. 4th in this last year and was running on at the end. So on that
alone he has a chance, and only 1lb higher than last year too. Hard to ignore.*****
19. Oscar Time –
2nd to Ballabriggs in 2011 and carrying only 2lb more than then.
However if you compare the 2 now, Ballabriggs goes into this race with some
nice prep races, Oscar Time has also had prep races but has not shown so much
has a glint of anything to come. He has come last in his last 2 starts and
unless these national fences revive him, I cannot see him figuring in the top
4. But he can get round. ****
20. Always Waining
– Wouldn’t want it too soft, but he loves these fences and has won the Topham a
couple of times, does bring him alive here, however I think he is in the wrong
race. I am not sure he has the stamina to do this, and at the age of 12, I
think he faces a tall order. If he was in the Topham I would back him, but not
this. As I say though, he does love the fences, which is a big bonus. ****
21. Quinz – Goes
much better on right handed courses, was pulled up in 2011 in this race, where
he broke a blood vessel, but he wasn’t having a smooth run of it anyway. I
would be more confident back him on a right handed course. Does look like he is
coming back into some sort of form though. ****
22. Tatenen – PU
and UR is by his name for over 3 miles at Aintree over the fences. Last year he
unseated his jockey at the 8th fence, doesn’t fill me with much
confidence and I’m not even sure that if he did complete the first circuit that
he would complete the 2nd. ****
23. Treacle –
There are some nice 12 year olds in this race this year and Treacle is one of
them, but I fear he will want the ground a lot softer than it will be.
Certainly in good form. Did fall in this last year but was badly hampered at
the 5th, when near the back of the field, which is a dangerous place
to be, and just never travelled afterwards and fell at the 10th. Has
the chance to go well, just needs a clear run. ****
24. Lost Glory –
Doesn’t tend to go well fresh, and he will certainly be that here. Hasn’t been
on a race course since October is for me, worrying. Stamina shouldn’t be a
worry, but he certainly isn’t owner JP McManus’s first string, and his 2 main
runners are Colbert Station and Sunnyhillboy. Might creep into places but because
he will be so fresh I would be surprised. Might get round though. ***
25. Swing Bill –
10th in this last year and 4th to Hello Bud in the
Bechers Chase in December. 5lb higher in the weights than last year too, so
will have it all to do. The fact that he gets round is a bonus, but there could
be several that are much better over this extreme distance. ****
26. Saint Are –
is only 7 and I think he would be one for the future for sure. He has only won
3 times in his career and 2 of those were at Aintree. This is a National horse
in the making. He needs the ground to be good, and I wouldn’t rule him out
because of his age, and he is on my short list. But I think maybe next year we
might stand up and notice him more. At
50/1 it looks appealing e/w price. ***
27. Chicago Grey
– Grand National winning trainer Gordon Elliot is confident of a big run from
this fellow, and so am I. He just will not want the ground too soft, and if
it’s not he will be a leading contender and is currently 14/1. He was brought
down in this at the 5th last year and last year I fancied him then
too. He has been going well on less than ideal conditions this season so far,
more to come on better ground. ****
28. Quiscover
Fontaine – Not connections main hopes, and I cannot see him getting the
distance, however he was 4th in the Irish Grand National 2 years
ago. He fell here last year at the 15th. There are others with much
better chances. ****
29. Rare Bob –
Brought down at the 5th last year, not sure he could win it this
year, but certainly has a good e/w shout at around 20/1 if he has a clear
round. ****
30. The Rainbow
Hunter – has an e/w chance but certainly I think there are better in this
than him. Still his trainer knows how to win a National, and so the horse will
be well prepared and you never know. ***
31.
Becauseicouldntsee – Fell at the 8th last year and fell at the 2nd
the year before that. Not much to recommend his chances, and I cannot even be
sure he will get the distance if he does get round. ****
32. Harry The Viking
– Owned by the same people who own What A Friend. I know Paul Nicholls views
him as a national horse, and he is only 8, I think maybe next year if he
carries on progressing then he might. E/w chance if the ground dries out a bit
more. **
33. Mr Moonshine
– Certainly has potential , and probably needs drier ground too, not sure if he
will get into the places, but could get round. ****
34. Mumbles Head
– Fell at the first in the Bechers Chase in December, probably won’t make it
round again, unless he hitches a ride on a better horse. ****
35. Pearlysteps –
Had a 42L whipping by Chicago Grey a couple of years ago over 4 miles and that
form certainly won’t be reversed, where as Chicago grey is looking good in
this, Pearlysteps has gone downhill. ***
36. Ninetieth Minute
– Beaten by Treacle last time out, but I think Treacle will get on better here
than this boy. I can’t see him troubling the leaders. ***
37. Auroras Encore
– goes better at longer distances, was 2nd in the Scottish National
by a head last year, but hasn’t shown anything since. But as I say, this
marathon distance might bring about a revival, others preferred. ****
38. Tarquinius –
this horse stays all day, but will need the ground to be a lot softer. Would
need to go round 3 times to be in with a chance though and still there might be
better. ***
39. Any Currency
– Unseated rider over these fences in December, and has only won right handed,
so this will be a challenge. Distance shouldn’t be an issue though. ****
40. Poker De Sivola
– had been off for nearly a year and has had 2 runs since, could be back to
race fitness and came 7th in the Becher chase while possibly still
needing the run. So signs could be that he might have retained some of his previous
ability, if that’s the case then maybe he has an e/w shout at 50/1. ***
41. Major Malarkey
– tough as old boots this horse, and stays forever, but only has 1 speed -
slow. Will need the ground a lot better than it might be. Still has an e/w shout as will keep on galloping,
but will do it in his own time. ***
42. Soll – has
some question marks for me, but connections are desperate to get him in because
they think he has a chance, not for me though. **
* represents
positives for the horse e.g., age, weight etc.
WE HOPE THAT ALL
HORSES GET HOME SAFE AND SOUND
Horses that have
won over these fences and attempts (Only Ballabriggs has won over
distance)
What A Friend 1/3
Always Waining 4/8
Cloudy Lane 1/4
Ballabriggs 1/3
Tantenen 1/4
Sunnyhillboy 1/2
Saint Are 2/3
Horses based on trends
1. Ballabriggs
2. Seabass
3. On His Own
4. Cappa Bleu
Horses based on Computer system
1. Ballabriggs
2. Rare Bob
3. Treacle
4. Always Waining
My shortlist – will be
if Good – Soft (as it is now)
1. Ballabriggs 20/1
2. Imperial Commander 16/1
3. Cappa Bleu 11/1
4. Join Together 16/1
5. Balthazar King 20/1
If there is rain and its Soft I couldn’t rule out Big Fella
Thanks 40/1, Colbert Station 11/1, Saint Are 50/1 and Chicago Grey 12/1,Cappa
Bleu 11/1 Rare Bob 40/1
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