Top Tips 12/4/13
 |
| Bishophill Jack is todays nap |
4:10 Lingfield - Homeward Strut 4/1
6:00 Chepstow - Bishophill Jack 16/1 e/w
9:00 Wolves - Restless Bay 3/1
Lucky 15
2:10 Chepstow - Hold Court 11/8
3:35 Lingfield - Purcell 11/10
5:50 Wolves - Jontleman 11/10
8:00 Wolves - Taglietelle 5/2 - £8.61
£55 stake - £8.61 returns = -£46.39 loss
Todays Nap
6:00 Chepstow - Bishophill Jack 16/1 e/w
I must admit, i have been trying hard to find another nap, Purcell is probably the best bet of the day, but is far too short for me to have as a nap. Bishophill Jack is another very risky nap, and although you might think why another risky nap, but i just keep going back to it. You cannot ignore some simple facts here.
Before i go into those, this is all very much determined by rain. The going is Good and with showers over night and during tomorrow, i am hoping the ground will become good-soft, and i expect you have already noticed the dreaded PU in his last 3 races. But i think i can explain those away.
One was on soft ground over much further, although he wasn't travelling that day, and the same on heavy ground, which was his first time of running on that deep a ground. His stats on soft/heavy is 11, 5, 6, Pu, Pu. If you go the other way and look at his stats on good, they are slightly better 5, 3, 7, Pu. That brings me to his more recent Pulling Up on Good ground. It was his first time wearing a visor, and it simply didn't work.
So now looking at his runs on Good-Soft his stats are 3*, 1, 1, 3*, 4*, 1 (* in higher class) straight away the stats are much improved, the 4th place he was beaten by Peat The Feat, Fog Patches and Changing Lane, which is not bad. 3 of his 4 wins have come on this ground. But if you notice ALL his 3 wins have come in todays class.
2 of those wins came rated 100 - the same as today, and both of those he carried 11st 12lb - the same as today. Of his last win, there were 6 other runners, 1 hasn't run since and 4 won next time out. So he has the form, i think as long as he gets Good - Soft ground then you might see a much better horse. He has every chance of winning it, Brockwell Park goes up 3lb shortly so she is getting a run in beforehand, and although i think she would not want rain, she still has a good chance. Cladding run well last time out, but now has 10lb more to carry. Rainbow Haze is similar to Bishophill Jack, and i think you will see an improvement there with the better ground. 16 other runners today, but the stats look good, it just depends if the horse hasn't lost his enthusiasm for racing.
Comments
Post a Comment