Tips 6/4/13

Ballabriggs - could he win the national for a 2nd time?

1:55 Lingfield - Bridge That Gap 10/3
2:25 Lingfield - A Boy Named Suzi 3/1
2:30 Chepstow - The Gossmoor Yank 16/1 e/w
4:15 Aintree - Ballabriggs 20/1 e/w
4:50 Chepstow - Posh Emily 20/1 e/w
5:20 Lingfield - Spark Of Genius 11/8
5:35 Newcastle - Ted's Brother 9/1 e/w (nap)
6:50 Wolverhampton - Blodwen Abbey 10/1 e/w

Todays Nap

5:35 Newcastle - Ted's Brother 9/1 e/w

Firstly i would like to apologise, my tips have taken a little bit of a back burner these last couple of days and i haven't spent the time looking as thoroughly as i normally do, and it's shown. I do put a lot of effort into them but i have been so busy, it was hard to fit everything in. So i am sorry if you have followed and been let down. I hope to make it up to you today though. I have spent a long time looking at this race and i feel sure i have found something. Now obviously it depends on the horse, but if i am right he should go well.

So Ted's Brother likes it at Newcastle and of his 4 wins 2 have come here. And his C&D stats are 1*, 1*, 10**, 3** (* 1 class higher ** 2 classes higher). the 2 wins come on soft ground, (g-s today) and his other 2 wins are on good. His 10th i think can be overlooked, for a start it was 2 classes higher than today, but most importantly he just doesnt go on the G-F that it was that day, he has not run well on any runs on G-F. The 3rd is not so easily overlooked, it was a good effort and was staying on at the end, just couldn't catch the winner. However on that day his handicap mark was 70 and carrying 8st 12lb, and it was on todays surface. So although he is still unknown on this type of ground, i think the fact that today he drops 10lb in the handicap to 60 and is carrying only 9st 3lb, and the jockey is claiming 5lb himself. drops into class 6 for the first time since his first ever race. I can see him being tough to beat.

I would like to add that his last race he came 9th, but there has been several winners out of that race, including the horse that came over a length behind, and the horse that came 11th came 2nd next time out.

Looking at the opposition, Outlaw Torn is on a career high mark and would need further than this to be at his best.
Keep It Dark is still a maiden and although knocking on the door, was well beaten by Rise To Glory last time out.
Drive Home is also on a career high mark and would need better ground, also he is coming here fresh and i think he will need the run
River Ardeche, is another that needs further
Jupiter Fidius likes the ground, but hasn't run since November and might just need this
Chosen Forever, 6 wins out of 7 have come on the a/w at wolves, and is better over further
Rise To Glory is the main threat but raised 6lb since last win
Out of them all i fear Alluring Star the most, but she has only ever won right handed, but everything else looks good with her, and it will be close.