Day 1 Cheltenham Tips

Zarkander is my nap today

I have spent several week writing this, at the time all prices and runners were correct, there might be a could of non runners

Each Race I have analysed the stats of each race and added the results with mine. These stats are based on the stats that are given out for each race ie, 10 or the last 11 winners came from Ireland or 12 of the last 13 winners, won last time out. And the one with the highest score went first and so on.

Tuesday 12^th March

13:30 William Hill Supreme Novice Hurdle

My Tent Or Yours comes to this race as favourite, although favourites do not have a great strike rate in this (2 winners in the last 18 running’s) however after his success in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury he is a serious contender. Jockey AP thinks s lot of this him, and goes here with every chance.

The Irish have a very good strike rate in this race with 10 out of the last 18 winners, and this year they come with all guns blazing in the form of Jezki, Jezki who is also owned by JP McManus as well as My Tent Or Yours. He is a winner of the Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle back in December and the better ground will just improve his chances.

Paul Nicholls brings Dodging Bullets straight to the Supreme, a horse that will appreciate the fast pace and better ground, Paul Nicholls describes him as the forgotten horse, and I would have to agree, surely his 3^rd to Darlan sets a very high standard here, and he won a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in November, where he beat River Maigue, even though he was giving River Maigue 7lb, and the pace of the race was slow and not to his liking. He will come here fresh but that will not pose a problem.

Melodic Rendezvous is a horse I like and he has improved with every race. He is a winner of a Grade 1 race at Sandown beating Pendra who had been unbeaten until then, he then went to Exeter to face another unbeaten horse in Puffin Billy. Although it was reported Puffin Billy was lame, Melodic Rendezvous won by 9 L. Puffin Billy looked to have possibly injured himself 2 from home, but before then, he wasn’t shaking off Melodic Rendezvous. As all the others, he will need better ground, and he can only improve.

Champagne Fever did nothing wrong in his race which was a Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle, the Supreme will suit him well, but I quite like another of his stable mate’s Pique Sous who has never been out of the top 3 in his career, and although he has not won a Grade 1 race, he came a very close 3^rd to Champagne Fever in the Grade 1 Weatherby's Bumper at Cheltenham last year.  And that race was red hot, the 2^nd horse was New Year’s Eve, and Jezki was 10l behind Pique Sous there, and Pique Sous is now 8lb better off.

Cheltenian is really an unknown quantity, as a 7 year old he has only every raced 4 times and has been 1^st twice and 2^nd twice. Last time out he was beaten only a short head by Minella Forfitness. And before that he was in the Champion bumper at Cheltenham which he won, beating Destroyer Deployed. I think he has leg issues, which means he takes a lot of time to get ready for races. Assuming his last race was needed and his legs are fine, then I wouldn’t completely write him off, and he could dangerous

Results Based On Stats                                            TNT Picks

1^st Chatterbox 20/1                                                    Jezki 9/2

2^nd Pique Sous  20/1                                                   Dodging Bullets 10/1

3^rd My Tent Or Yours 7/4                                           Pique Sous 20/1

14:05 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

Simonsig is the odds on favourite for this race and his results show why, he won last year’s Neptune Novice Hurdle by 7l and his margins have just got bigger and bigger, most recently a 35l annihilation of Hinterland, who is extremely talented in his own right. The only issue would be that he will show up to Cheltenham without a run beforehand, but I cannot see that being an issue.

Overturn is very exciting and I am looking forward to seeing him in this race. Donald McCain is quite bullish about his chances in this, and I agree he has a chance. He was 2^nd in last year’s Champion Hurdle beaten Hurricane Fly, and it was an excellent front running performance. He will be hard to catch. Even Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls has tipped this to win. I think he could cause a major upset in this race.

Stats                                                    TNT

1^st Simonsig       4/6                        Overturn  11/4

2^nd Overturn     11/4                      Simonsig 4/6

14:40 JLT Speciality Handicap Chase

Cantlow came 3^rd at Cheltenham last year in the Pertemps Hurdle, and since switching to fences, he has progressed nicely and the better ground and the extra distance will suit nicely, however connections are looking at sending him to the Byrne Plate instead of this race. Our Mick who was 3^rd in this last year, even though he had a terrible run, making many mistakes. After that run, he has been off for about  10 months, and came back to Cheltenham in the Murphy Group Chase, and sent Jason Maguire out the back door on the way round. Donald McCain has nominated Our Mick as his best chance over the Festival, my worry would be his jumping around here, in 2 runs around the course, it has been filled with jumping mistakes and he hasn’t filled me with confidence.

Opening Batsman as of yet, connections are undecided if he will go to Cheltenham at all. Alfie Sherrin was last year’s winner of this and comes back with every chance. AP McCoy will probably take the ride, even though he wasn’t on him last year. And he will be carrying more weight than last year.

Last Year’s 2^nd in this Fruity O’Rooney looks like he is coming back into some form, the last 2 starts he has been placed behind Katenko. He is 1lb lower in the weights than last year, and I think he has every chance.

Stats                                                    TNT

1^st Cantlow         10/1                      Fruity O’Rooney 20/1

2^nd Ballynagour 12/1                    Our Mick 10/1

3^rd Our  Mick 10/1                         Alfie Sherrin 14/1

15:20 Stan James Champion Hurdle

With Hurricane Fly hot favourite for this, after a very impressive 5 length win in the Irish Champion Hurdle, he is certainly the horse to beat. Winner of 16 out of 19 starts over Hurdles and winner in the 2011 Champion Hurdle, the horse comes here with a lot of respect and every chance.  However he came here last year 4/6f and on the back of 7 straight wins. They went off at a blistering pace, with Overturn, Rock On Ruby and Celestial Halo in front, and Hurricane Fly just couldn’t cope with the pace. His win the year before, although the race had Overturn leading the way. The pace was nowhere near as quick. This year promises to go off very quickly too, which might put Hurricane Fly into a spot of bother. So who could take advantage of that? Also it would be remiss of me not to point out that Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Hurricane Fly over Zarkander. I do not think we should read too  much into it though. I think it was a tough decision, Ruby has a lot of confidence in Hurricane Fly.

Rock On Ruby, last year’s winner, will be up there with the pace, and he will like it quick. He was 8 Lengths 3^rd to Zarkander in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December. However Harry Fry was insistent that he needed the run and will be better for it. And it showed when he came back to winning ways at Doncaster on the 4^th of February, beating Countrywide Flame. However his success was overshadowed by the death of Darlan in the race. He won the race well and that cannot be taken away from him, and he will be primed and ready for the Champion Hurdle.

But the horse I would like to focus on a bit is Zarkander. He has only been beaten twice over his 8 starts over hurdles. The last time was a heavy fall at Aintree last year. And The other time was here at Cheltenham in last year’s Champion Hurdle. Paul Nicholls had mentioned that he wasn’t 100% after a bout of coughing, and was certainly not right after the race. However he stormed up that hill, and if he could do that while still not right, I cannot wait to see him 100% right coming up the hill.

Donald McCain has said Cinders And Ashes has a great e/w chance, and based on last year’s win in the Supreme Novice, he comes into this looking like he could be up there at the end. Grandouet  is very interesting , and one notable run was when he beat last year’s 2^nd Overturn, by 4l here in December. He was beaten by Zarkander last time out. They met on level terms then and again in this. I cannot see him reversing that.

Binocular is a horse I have always rated. And you cannot ignore him in this. He had been off for about 10 months, when he went over to Leopardstown to meet Hurricane Fly, and although he came 3^rd that day. I certainly wasn’t surprised, although a big thing was made of it at the time, the facts where, Binocular desperately needed the run and he always needs a run to sharpen him up. And Henderson described him as ‘Electric’ when he had a race course gallop recently. Although I haven’t added him to my final 3, but if he did end up in the first 3 I wouldn’t be too shocked.

Countrywide Flame has done nothing wrong since leaving flat racing behind, and his victory over Cinders And Ashes in The Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle was exceptional. However I do think there are a few horses out there that are better, and I would be surprised if he was in contention at the finish.

Stats                                    TNT

1^st Rock On Ruby 6/1    Zarkander 5/1

2^nd Hurricane Fly 2/1   Rock On Ruby 6/1

3^rd Binocular 10/1         Hurricane Fly 2/1

16:00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase

Enda Bolger has trained the winner or runner up in 7 of the last 8 running’s of this race, so straight away you have to take note of his leading hope Arabella Boy, however Arabella Boy does not seem to like it at Cheltenham and out of both visits, he has performed very badly. Although current form could not have him ruled out, and maybe he is older and wiser.
Balthazar King heads up the home defence, he won this last year, and has been in fine form since, and he cannot be ignored and has every chance. Outlaw Pete is leading Irish contender and he will enjoy it at Cheltenham, although he seems to save his best form for soft ground, and if he gets that here, he will be another horse with every chance. He won at Cheltenham in December very nicely and was 3^rd the time before that, being beaten by Uncle Junior.
Poker De Sivola could be interesting here, he came 6^th 2 years ago in this, but that was a prep run for the Scottish Grand National, so I do wonder how well he will go seeing as this is his target this time. Sizing Australia has been in poor form recently and was 6^th here in November. I think he will need firm ground to be more effective, and I very highly doubt he will get that here.
A New Story was 7^th to Outlaw Pete here in December and has a great record in this race actually, even though he is 15 now, he might have another good run in him yet. Last year he was only beaten by a head by Balthazar King, and he has been placed everytime. Not won it but at 33/1 i think it’s quite a nice e/w.
Stats                                                    TNT
1^st Arabella Boy 5/1                       Outlaw Pete 6/1
2^nd Outlaw Pete 6/1                      Boston’s Angel 10/1
3^rd Uncle Junior 7/1                      Poker De Sivola 20/1
4^th Boston’s Angel 10/1                A New Story 33/1

16:40 OLBG Mares Hurdle

Quevega comes here to defend her title and try and win this for the 5^th time, equalling Golden Millers record. No horse has beaten his since May 2009 and there is nothing to suggest she will be beaten in this.  She has been off for nearly a year, but she goes well fresh.

However, Une Artiste is probably her main rival in this and I wouldn’t be surprised if she put up a good fight, in fact I might be so bold as to say she could be a very serious threat to Quevega's crown, although I think her best work has come on soft ground, she still goes well on good, Good – Soft, and what people seem to forget is that Quevega is 9 now and 2 years ago she won by 10l last year only 4 and a half, and Une Artiste wasn’t in her race then. Une Artiste is only 5 and still progressing. I would actually consider putting a tiny win bet in her, because if any horse is going to cause an upset in the race, I think it could be Une Artiste.

I like Kentford Grey Lady a lot and she will appreciate a fast pace in this. She was only 4 and a half lengths behind Quevega last year, and has done little wrong this year. However I am not sure she will reverse that form this time. Twigline is a interesting horse, was going well in her last race, until she was put under pressure and fell, my worry would be that it would happen again and I think she could buckle under the pressure again, also it wasn’t a nice fall, and I would worry her confidence might of been knocked slightly.

Alasi has been beaten by both Une Artiste and Quevega and although I cannot see her reversing that form, I think the better ground will help and she could have a place chance.

There are plenty of nice mares in this race, Kaffie, Kauto Shiny, Mischievous Milly, Miss Milbourne, She Ranks Me and Zuzku – I think Quevega and Une Artiste will be the main attraction and fill those first 2 places.

Stats                                                      TNT

1^st Quevega        1/2                        1^st Quevega 1/2

2^nd Une Artiste 6/1                        2^nd Une Artiste 6/1

3^rd Kentford Grey Lady                9/1        3^rd Kentford Grey Lady 9/1

17:15 Pulteney Land Novices' Chase

Colour Squadron looks to be JP McManus’s first horse, and will probably have AP on board. Colour Squadron was 2^nd at Punchestown in the Champion Novice Chase, and he has plenty of ability, his switch to Fences has been a tad disappointing and his jumping has not been the sharpest. But horses that have not won over fences and are still Novices have the best record in this race and he would have to go here with a great chance.

Stats                                                    TNT

1^st Colour Squadron 10/1            Colour Squadron 10/1

2^nd Tetlami 25/1                             Carlito Brigante  15/2

3^rd Shangani 16/1                           Shangani 16/1                                 

4^th Savello 20/1                               Arthurs Pass 20/1