Tips for 27/3/13

Big Sylv (left) has a great chance

4:20 Southwell - Elusive Hawk 5/4 (nap) - £22.50
4:55 Southwell - Luv U Whatever 13/8
7:20 Wolverhampton - Big Sylv 5/2 - £35

£30 stake - £57.50 returns = £27.50 profit

Todays Nap

4:20 Southwell - Elusive Hawk 5/4 (nap)

I'm afraid nothing stands out for me today like yesterday, but there is Elusive Hawk who i saw run 2 days ago. A lot of friends tipped the horse in that race, and at the beginning of the race a horse threw it's jockey leaving a riderless horse out front, as they turned into the straight, the loose horse veered right taking Elusive Hawk and another with it. But what impressed me most is that Elusive Hawk finished like a train, and only lost by 1 1/2 L I said at the time, that the horse will win next time out.

So here we are at Southwell, 6 wins in his career - 3 of them are here over C&D, last win came rated 70 and is rated 71 today. Carrying the same weight too. But this time Rob Fitzpatrick is claiming 7lbs.

Elusive Hawk is very short, and i cannot find anything a bit longer, but i will look again tomorrow and see if i can find anything



Update
Last night i was going through a race and it's been baffling me. I will explain why.

It concerns the 3:10 at Southwell and involves Caldercruix the favourite 2/1 and Caledonia Prince 13/2. And the reason it is baffling me is because of the weight difference when they met Dubai Hills over C&D.

Caledonia Prince met Dubai Hills in the same class race as today, and was soundly beaten by 9 and a half lengths. That day DH handicap mark was 82 and he carrying 9st 4lb, while CP was carrying 8st and handicap was 71.

DH's went on to a class 3 race where he met Caldercruix. DH's was now carrying a 10lb penalty plus 9lb 7lb. Where as Caldercruix was carrying 8st 4lb and handicap of 78.

So my point is, if my calculations are correct, that Caledonia Prince, if he was meeting Dubai Hills on the terms Caldercruix met him on, could of been a lot closer, which means there would be hardly anything between the 2. And since those races CP has a 3lb penalty and is carrying 9st 3lb and Caldercruix stays on the same mark but is carrying 9st 7lb (jockey claims 3lb).

I know i have thrown loads of figures at you. It made my head turn last night, but CP loves it at the course his stats over C&D are 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 4, 1, 1, and although this is a step up, i think he will be capable. And he has drifted out to 13/2 now, so an e/w looks a lot more exciting, as i am confident a e/w is a solid bet.

A brief look at the other runners

Kung Hei Fat Choy is a horse i like, has won at this level, but was carrying 7lb less than today. He will be a danger.

Our Ivor is carrying an 8lb penalty since his 5th to Caledonia Prince and that was under a 6lb penalty, i cannot see him reversing that form.

Flying Pickets looks to want 7f, so this might stretch him, although he has been heavily tipped.

Mutafaakir i think needs to drop in class and the handicap before you see him winning anything.

Trois Vallee could be a surprise package here in newly applied headgear, although for me it's always a worry for a horse first time here at Southwell, some horses just do not like the kickback, and you can never tell until they race on it.

This was going to be a tip, but i just cannot split them, and although i do like Caledonia Prince, i think this is a race you are either going to leave altogether or look for a nice e/w price

Good luck with your bets today