Tips for 1/4/13

Azreal is todays NAP

So many horses i liked, i decided just to post my short list today

2:10 Huntingdon - Who's Cross 6/4
2:40 Yarmouth - Azreal 10/3 (nap) - £43.33
2:55 Newcastle - Matthew Riley 1/1 - £20
3:05 Plumpton - Risk 5/1
3:35 Plumpton - Fixitright 8/1 e/w (nb) - £15
3:40 Fairyhouse - Pique Sous 4/1 - £50
3:45 Fakenham - That's The Deal 7/4
4:35 Plumpton - Goochypoochyprader 5/1
4:40 Huntingdon - Croco Mister 7/4
4:50 FairyHourse  - Marasonnien 8/1 e/w
                               Jackonlady 20/1 e/w
5:35 Plumpton - Waarid 8/1 e/w (treble) - £15

£120 stakes - £143.33 returns = -£23.33 profit

Todays Nap

2:40 Yarmouth - Azreal 10/3

After a campaign on the a/w over the winter, Azreal comes back to the turf today with every chance. His only victories have come on turf, and most notably they came in a class 4 and class 3 race, and was rate 83 on his last victory, today he is rated 72. Since starting his winter campaign, he has been very consistent in this class and lower, last time out he was a very respectable 2nd to Classic Colori.

What's interesting is what has come out of that race. Classic Colori has gone onto win another race and then step up in class and came 4th. But most interesting is the 3rd place horse has gone on to win 2 races, the 4th has gone onto win a race and the horse that trailed in last has since struck up a 2nd place very recently. All franking this boys form.

My only worry is that he is stepping up to 8f and his breeding does suggest 7f, he has gone over this distance before and is so far unproven. They were in class 3 races, this is class 5.

Also Ryan Moore takes the ride today, which can only boost his chances

Of his oppenents Tweedle Dee, hasn't run since 2011, and will probably need a run, although the step up to 1m will suit. Aquarian Spirit has been out of form, but is dropping in class today, and although i am not sure will make much difference it could be beneficial. Bloodsweatandtears is a danger, his last race he was 2nd to Lieutenant Dan, who has run 4th since, but the 3rd place horse has won. However i think my choice is the strongest of them all and will be hard to catch. He will set the pace in this and they all have to get past him, he is also carrying the same weight and handicap mark when 1L 2nd last time.




Todays NB and Treble

3:35 Plumpton - Fixitright 8/1 e/w (nb)
5:35 Plumpton - Waarid 8/1 e/w (treble)

A quick mention of Waarid, he was a horse i picked up on last time out for the following reason, he has been off the track for 3 years and a maiden, and during that time, Gary Moore brought him off his owners and there has to be a reason he kept him in training. I watched his last run and Jamie Moore had to work hard on him half way out, i expected it a little as the horse was not race fit. But the horse plugged on really well and came from last all the way to lose by just 2L, he was catching the leaders, who had been allowed to get away. I wrote his name straight away with the words "he will win next time out", My only worry is that this is much further than he has run, so although he looked like he could go further, it remains to be seen if he can, i would of thought he would be more effective at 2m 4f, but Gary Moore is no fool, and there has to be reasons. I think he is worth a e/w.

Fixitright looks a strange choice, and for my reason for picking him you have to dig a little. 8th out of 15 last time out and beaten 38L, but the winner of the race was Many Clouds, who has since gone onto come 2nd in a Grade 3 race. That race has produced several winners and Midnight Prayer who came 1L behind him in that has since been given a handicap rating of 115 and came 4th by just over 4L. Fixitright has been given a rating of 111 on his handicap debut, with the step up in distance and the ease in the ground, this could just bring out the best in this horse.

His race before he was 7th of 10 behind the likes of Chatterbox and My Tent Or Yours. Only beaten 37L by them, he also came home in front of Minella For Party, who has managed a 2nd since. It looks promising that he can finally get his nose in front on his Handicap debut