Cheltenham Tips Day 2
13:30 John Oaksey National Hunt Chase
What a race this
could be, some very exciting horses are contesting this Harry Topper out and
Boston Bob looking unlikely to run, it looks like Rival D’Estruval will go off
favourite in this. Rival D’Estruval has been given a little break since his
last run in December, as he always runs well fresh. His last race beating
Papamoa who has franked that win nicely. He looks very impressive, and looks to
go on any ground.
Godsmejudge also has a very good chance. His trainer Alan King thinks he is one of
his best chances. Not sure if there was excuses for his poor performance in
December, when 12th to Rolling Aces, however he has done nothing
wrong since.
Hawkes Point is said to be Paul Nicholls best outsiders chance of the Festival. He
was a very close 2nd to Opening Batsman in December. Which on that
form does mean he is in with a shout. The ground should be no issue either. I
think he has a great chance to win this.
Stats TNT
1st
Rival D’Estruval 8/1 Hawkes
Point 20/1
2nd Godsmejudge
10/1 Godsmejudge 10/1
3rd Merry
King 9/1 Rival
D’Estruval 8/1
14:05 Neptune Investment Management Novice Hurdle
Although this is
not the best Grade 1 of the Festival, it certainly has attracted some very good
Novices. And they dominate the betting. Pont Alexandre
has been described by Willie Mullins as the best Novice Hurdler he has ever
had, except maybe Hurricane Fly, I flagged this one up straight away, as
knowing what sort of horses have been in his yard, then that is some accolade
indeed, and i duly got on at 3/1, he is now around 5/2. He is unbeaten in 3
races and those races include and Grade 1 and 2.
But there is a
very big danger in the form of Taquin Du Seuil who’s trainer has said that
this horse is his biggest chance of a winner at the Fesitval. In 4 races over
Hurdles he has been beaten just the once by none other than My Tent Or Yours,
but the other runs he has done well, and maybe better ground will help him
too. In fact i cannot see much between
these 2, but i think Taquin Du Seuil could edge it.
I still think
there is more to come with The New One on better ground. He was uneaten
in Hurdles until last time out on heavy ground, but still was only beaten a
quarter of a length by At Fishers Cross. Puffin Billy was also beaten last time out, however
he sustained a leg injury 2nd from home and had to recover from
that. I do like Puffin Billy, and i know connections think a lot of him, but i
did feel he couldn’t shake Melodic Rendezvous off before his injury, and he
might not of won the race anyway.
Rule The World is a lovely horse, he won by 16Lengths in a Grade 2 last time out and
if he can do that in ground not to his liking, what could he do in ground he
wants? He certainly cannot be ruled out
of this
In my opinion
this will be tight between the main 2 horses, it could go either way.
Stats TNT
1st
Pont Alexandre 5/2 Pont
Alexandre 5/2
2nd
The New One 7/2 Taquin
Du Seuil 6/1
3rd
Bright New Dawn 25/1 Rule The
World 10/1
14:40 RSA Chase
Dynaste goes in this as favourite, i know Pipe and Scudamore both think he
will win, but he is not as short as maybe he should be, my stats do not come
out very favourably with him, in fact my stats on the race, say there are at
least 6 horses that are better placed to win this. However Dynaste has done nothing
wrong in his chasing career, even winning the Grade 1 Feltham Chase on far from
ideal ground. The drier ground at Cheltenham will be better and he will be very
hard to beat.
2nd
in the Albert Bartlett last year to the ill fated Brindisi Breeze, Boston Bob
he has taken to chasing well and has won
both his races over fences including a Grade 1 in Leopardstown albeit by a
nose. He was entered in the 4 miler but connections think this will suit
better. Although Willie Mullins isn’t brimming with confidence still, bt he is
a horse that could be ruled out.
Unioniste, is a very interesting horse, he has only run 4 times over here, but
before ran very well in France. He has won 3 of those races and came 3rd
to Dynaste in November, and is 2lb better off in the weights today. My only
issue is that he is still only 5 and he is still improving, however he is a
very big strong horse, so it might not matter. Hadrian’s Approach was beaten by
a short head on their last run, and has been unlucky because the time before that
met Dynaste and was beaten 9L. I cannot really see that form reversed, but he
could sneak into the places.
Lord Windermere was only half a length away in 3rd to Boston Bob in the
Grade 1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown, and connections have been waiting to step
him up in distance on better ground, this step up should suit him and he could
be one to sneak into the places.
Super Duty has never been out of the top 2 in his whole racing career, except
when he fell 2 years ago in a hurdle race. Beaten by a head by Goulanes over 1f
further, this drop back might bring out the best in him. Houblon Des Obeaux is a horse i
quite fancy, although he has not won over fences since November, he has come up
against the likes of Captain Conan, also in his last race he put up a very good
performance to come within 1 and a half lengths of Rocky Creek, on that form he
could have a very good chance.
Goulanes is interesting, connections
think a lot of him and he won a Grade 2 Chase on the very first time under
Rules over fences. He will improve on that, and has only ever been beaten once
in his career and that was his first race in a Point To Point, every race he
has scrapped it out at the end, but he has got there.
Stats TNT
1st
Super Duty 25/1 Unioniste
10/1
2nd
Lord Windermere 20/1 Houblon Des
Obeaux 33/1
3rd
Unioniste 10/1 Goulanes
14/1
15:20 Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase
Looks like the
opposition are running scared and all the horses that could give Sprinter Sacre
a race of it, have fled to take on easier targets, which is a great shame, as
it would be nice to see someone taking him on. As it is, it might be left to
Stable Mate Finians
Rainbow to have a shot, but he will only run if the ground is good.
Sanctuaire looks to miss Cheltenham altogether while Sizing Europe and Cue Card
look set to take each other on in the Ryanair instead of here. It will be a
very small field indeed if Finians Rainbow does not take part, leaving Wishfull
Thinking and Somersby to take up the challenge and try and
get as close as possible.
(last minute addition)
Mail De Bievre has been supplemented for this
race at a cost of £17.500. Looks like they mean business. Now i would like to
add, a friend told me he had backed the horse back in February for the Gold
Cup, and i watched his race in the Denman Chase over 3miles. I had already
heard that connections thought a lot of him and he had nearly 2 years off the
track. He blew me away with his jumping and speed. It looked like he needed the
run and had run out of fuel 2 -3
furlongs out, but before that i could not fault him. Straight away i took note,
and have waiting for him to run every since. He if runs anything like he did
that day and is now race fit, Sprinter Sacre will now have a race on his hands.
I hope i am not disappointed. And i have added him as my 2nd place
choice, but i wouldn’t be surprised if the horse could get close. Only worry is
the ground and he will be carrying the heaviest he has every carried. But take
note note of this horse.
Stats TNT
1st
Sprinter Sacre 1/4 1st
Sprinter Sacre 1/4
2nd
Somersby 25/1 2nd Mail De Bievre 16/1
16:00 Coral Cup Handicap Chase
Pendra looks good for this, will probably go in as favourite due to
Wonderful Charm looking like he is headed for the World Hurdle. So basing it on
that fact, my first choice will be Pendra, who is very well handicapped. Beaten
into 2nd last time out by Melodic Rendezvous, that is in no way a
bad thing. He looks to be the one that can take this.
Orsippius likes Cheltenham and looks to be a decent e/w But Master Of The Sea has won 4 on the bounce and is
still improving – could go well here
Stats TNT
1st
Pendra 8/1 Pendra
8/1
2nd
Kians Delight 50/1 Master
Of The Sea 12/1
3rd
Fahamore 33/1 Orsippius
40/1
16:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Novice Handicap Hurdle
Saphir Du Rheu according to connections is the one to beat, they say it will take a
very good horse to beat him. And after his demolition job of God Of The Kop
last time out, i would have to agree. The better ground will bring out even
more improvement too.
Zamdy Man is another connections think a lot of. Aiden Coleman said he would
win on his next time out, and he didn’t but he is tough and will be hard to
shake off, and i wouldn’t be worried that he is still a maiden but maidens have
a good strike rate in this race. Ruacana has been running well and wasn’t
disgraced last time out when 3rd to Our Connor, and will come here
with a chance
Stats TNT
1st
Zamdy Man 20/1 Saphir
Du Rheu 8/1
2nd
Three Kingdoms 40/1 Zamdy Man
20/1
3rd
Ibsen 28/1 Ruacana
20/1
17:15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
I think both Shield
and Sgt
Reckless could go close, both Joseph O’Brien and Richard Hughes had
to get permission to ride them. It’s wide open with a lot of good horses, they
are horses i think will place. My main pick is Blackmail though and i think he
will be a hard nut to crack, especially with better ground. He won well in
soft/heavy ground last time out, but with the ground drying, his chances
improve.
I have added a 4th
place, because i like this horse Vieux Lion Rouge, i have followed his career
from the start and could have a e/w squeak
I would like to
point out that this race is tough, and although i like Blackmail a lot, there
are many horses that can fill those places
Stats TNT
1st
Union Dues 8/1 Blackmail
12/1
2nd Blackmail 12/1 Shield
16/1
3rd
Drumlee 20/1 Sgt
Recklass 9/1
4th
Golantilla 8/1 Vieux
Lion Rouge 25/1
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