UPDATED WELSH NATIONAL PREVIEW 2013
This is all based on the basis that the going will be Heavy.
1. Across
The Bay 25/1 – New top weight, since the The Welsh National was moved to the 5th
and Tidal Bay is now out. He has been in great form recently and deserves his
place here. This is the furthest he has been but I think he will go well, and
this horse, goes very well on the ground. The only negative is that he is top
weight, apart from that, I couldn’t see why he wouldn’t be there at the end.
2. Quartz De Thaix 14/1 – Ground should not be a
worry, will be the furthest he has gone and on heavy is a big ask, but I cannot
see any reason why he cannot be there at the end. Venetia Williams horses have
been in great form recently too.
3. Giles Cross 10/1 – I am not going to lie, this
horse for me has a fantastic chance. And I have already backed him. Was a leading contender for this years’ Grand
National until the ground dried out and
he was never travelling and ended being pulled up. Very lightly raced for a 10
year old, reason being is that he is a mudlark, and not many opportunities to
run on his kind of ground. Excellent 2nd here last year. He has the ability to improve on that.
4. Teaforthree 3/1 – Hot favourite for this race,
he is another horse who will want testing ground. The wetter the better.
Trainer has been in brilliant form recently and champion jockey A P McCoy is in
the saddle, he has been in good form himself. Teaforthree can run all day too.
Maybe a win for the Welsh?
5. Michael Le Bon 7/1 – ground should be fine,
and although has not gone this far before, I do not think it would be an issue.
Ryan Mahon is booked to ride which says the horse is not the yards first string.
6. Soll 14/1 – Unproven over this type of
distance, although ground is what the horse needs. I would be surprised if he won
this, however that’s not saying he couldn’t get into the places. Has run over
the longer distance on ground not suitable. Could surprise.
7. Universal Soldier 14/1 – goes well on soft,
looks like he will go further, just cannot be sure, if the horse would like
very testing conditions. Bit of an unknown for me.
8. Alfie Spinner 10/1 – Another mud-lover, should
stay too. Although all depends on how he came out of his last race after sending
Jockey Mark Quinlan out the back door.
9. Master Overseer 14/1 – One of 2 horses
ruinning for David Pipe. Really good win last time out at Cheltenham beating
Quartz De Thaix by ¾ of a length. The
ground is what he wants and this horse will gallop all day. He is described by
his trainer as “the slowest horse we have got”, but he has guts and will want
it to be very testing. I can see him going very well. Maybe a couple of horses
faster on this type of ground, but he won’t give up without a fight.
10. Katenko 28/1 – Bit risky this one. Goes well never won further than 2m 6f
11. Royal Charm 28/1 – Another risky one, heavy
ground not an issue, however has never won further than 2m 2f. Also has only
ever won round Exeter, which in itself is a very testing track.
12. Viking Blond 7/1 – PU here last year, but does
like Chepstow and form here reads 2, 1, 1, P. However both times he has
attempted this distance he has pulled up. So it’s a tough one to decide. It
might be that this distance is just slightly too far. Ground is fine.
13. Major Malarkey 25/1
– Cannot see the horse winning, however he has plenty of stamina, and that is
what will be needed here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets into the places.
14. Jadanli 33/1 – Only
ever won on heavy ground, but I think would be hard pushed to make the
placings.
15. Mon Mome 40/1 – Hasn’t won since beating
Comply Or Die in the 2009 Grand National at 100/1, Heavy ground ok, but he is
not the horse he was when winning the Grand National, saying that, he wasn’t
much of a horse before that either. As he showed back then, he has the ability
on a very good day. Oldest horse in the race too, which counts as a negative.
16. Triggerman 50/1 – Tempermental issues, jumping
issues and ground issues. Stamina ok, but more negatives than positives for me
17. Monbeg Dude 14/1 – Beat promising chaser
Bradley last time out by a neck. Might be that this is strecthing his stamina
in heavy ground. Could scrape into the places though.
18. Harouet 33/1 – has won over 3m 2f on heavy
ground, certainly goes on the ground and could scrape into the places, but I
like others.
19. Sona Sasta 7/1 – won
here last time over 3miles on heavy ground. Bit of a step up in distance and
has the stamina. Although he has never
won over 3 miles. Very well off in the weights, and jockey claims 7lbs.
20. Our Island 33/1 – Beaten into 3rd
by Arbor Supreme last time out over futher on heavy ground. More needed here,
but has loads of stamina.
21. Cool Operator 20/1 – Low in the weights and
jockey claiming 7lbs as well. Won very nicely last time out on Heavy over 3m
2f. Although more needed here, this horse has run twice on heavy and won twice.
22. Incentivise 50/1 – ground ok, and distance ok,
but another horse that could just be out of his league here.
23. Arbor Supreme 33/1 – Very nice win last time
out over further on heavy, and carrying lowest weight here. Could go ok but there are several better.
Plenty of horses will go on heavy ground, as usual it is a tough one, but 4 horses
stand out for me. I think Quartz De Thaix can turn the tables on Master
Overseer, last time there was 13lb in Master Overseer’s favour; separating them, now only 10lbs and I think
that 3lbs difference can tip the balanace. Will be close between Giles Cross
and Teaforthree, but I think Giles Cross still has the edge, and I backed him
at 12’s so e/w is looking good.
1.
Giles Cross 10/1
2.
Teaforthree 3/1
3.
Quartz de Thaix 14/1
4.
Master Overseer 14/1
As I said so many other good horses too, Across the Bay, Sana Sasta, Universal Soldier,
Soll, Michael Le Bon all could be up there at the end, and I hope this helps
you deicde.
TNT
@thenovicetipste
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